TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2024

FORECAST BULLETIN 15 MAY 2024 AT 1845 UTC:
NOTE: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING A REGION FOR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA.
PLEASE CHECK THE NHC WEBSITE FOR UPDATES ON THE DEVELOPMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE
GULF OF DARIEN AND EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA...AND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN COLOMBIA. THE ITCZ IS
LOCATED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ASSISTING
WITH VENTILATION FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE REGION. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA IS SEEING THE
PROGRESSION OF EASTERLY WAVES AND AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
WHILE THEY INTERACT WITH THE OROGRAPHY AND THE ITCZ. ON MONDAY...A
DISSIPATING EASTERLY WAVE IS LOCATED OVER EXTREME EAST COSTA RICA
AND IT IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN COSTA RICA AND IN WEST
PANAMA. NICARAGUA...AND THE REST OF PANAMA COULD SEE MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH REMAIN IN THE
REGION. COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA AND THE GOLFO DE FONSECA REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER WEST...PANAMA IS EXPECTED TO
SEE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE IS
ORGANIZING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGHS TO THE SOUTH OF
CHIAPAS...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR.  GENERAL SOUTHERLY ONSHORE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER INTO REGIONS OF SOUTHERN
CHIAPAS...INTO GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...NICARAGUA...AND EXTEND TO
COSTA RICA. THESE REGIONS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE
PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS.

IN THE NORTH...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED OVER THE UNITED
STATES EASTERN SEABOARD...CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON MONDAY. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER. ON TUESDAY...THE
PASSING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM WITH MODERATE RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF SQUALLY
REMAINS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE.

IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND HAS ITS BASE INTO
NORTHEAST VENEZUELA. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
RETROGRADES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND PROVIDES
VENTILATION FOR DEEP CONVECTION INTO EASTERN COLOMBIA...SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA...AND NORTHWEST AMAZONAS-BRASIL. IN ADDITION...AN
EASTERLY WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER THE SAME REGION ON
MONDAY...FAVORING MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN NORTHWEST
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN EAST COLOMBIA AND INTO
SOUTHERN VENEZUELA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. CENTRAL REGIONS OF COLOMBIA...AND INTO NORTHERN PERU CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON THURSDAY...THERE IS A SUBTLE DECREASE
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE NORTH SOUTH
AMERICA REGION. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 50MM IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN ECUADOR AND WEST COLOMBIA DUE TO
NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.
WEST COLOMBIA AND WEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. FROM
VENEZUELA...TO EASTERN COLOMBIA...AND INTO
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL REGIONS OF SURINAME...FRENCH GUIANA...AND AMAPA...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION...ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM ARE EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...THE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER BEGIN TO INCREASE DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE IN THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. INTERACTION OF TROUGHS AND EASTERLY WAVES
ALONG THE ITCZ WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
GUIANAS...AND NORTHERN PARA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. THE
COASTAL REGIONS FROM FRENCH GUIANA AND AMAPA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
ITCZ. THEY CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. SIMILARLY...THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SURINAME AND GUYANA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS...AND CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. EASTERLY WAVE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.
NORTH AND WEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE
CENTRAL VENEZUELA...AND NORTH AMAZONAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.

ACOSTA...WPC (USA)