TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
938 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024

WEEKLY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI JUN 13/12UTC:

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE RAINFALL PATTERN WOULD BE
CONSIDERED TYPICAL...AS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT EASTERN
PR AND THE USVI IN THE MORNING HOURS...THEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR. THAT BEING SAID...THE
AMOUNTS WILL VARY EACH DAY AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
VARY...AND THERE WILL BE SOME SAHARAN DUST IN THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE FRIDAY ONWARD. TODAY COULD BE THE
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN
ANOTHER PATCH OF MOISTURE COULD BE MOVING IN. COMPARED TO
NORMAL...THIS MORNING COULD HAVE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE...FOLLOWED
BY NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF
PATCH OF MOISTURE COULD MOVE IN EARLY MONDAY. THEN PATCH OF DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ASSOCIATED
WITH EITHER A SFC LOW PRESSURE OR TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THERE IS A SFC TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE LOCAL SFC WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN
THE MID LEVELS...THERE IS A RIDGE THAT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...THEN A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH THE
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THE UPPER
LEVELS ALSO HAS A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BUT A
TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE LEEWARDS. BY EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

GIVEN THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
THE SAHARAN DUST EXPECTED...THE RAINFALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE
THAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE
USVI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW. TODAY WOULD BE THE DAY WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CONSIDERING THE
MOISTURE EXPECTED. THE SAHARAN DUST MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK WILL CAUSE DRYING OVER THE AREA AND THE RAINFALL
COVERAGE AREA AND AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. 

ALAMO...WPC (USA)