Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Valid 00Z Tue May 28 2024 - 00Z Thu May 30 2024

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains on Tuesday and a Slight Risk over parts of the Northeast
to the Southeast with a second area over parts of the Southern Plains on
Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the northern
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Monday and the Southern Plains on Tuesday...

...There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over southern
Texas...

On Monday evening, a front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the
Mid-Atlantic and southwestward to the Southern Plains will move to the
Eastern Seaboard and stall Tuesday morning through evening. The boundary
will create an area of showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Eastern Seaboard to near the Central Gulf Coast. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast to the Southeast through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, near the western part of the boundary and dryline, showers
and severe thunderstorms will develop over Texas. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, there will be an added threat of
severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater over parts of the
region.

Also, on Monday, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of southeastern New York, eastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New
Jersey, and northeastern Maryland. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the northern
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Tuesday, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over Texas along
the western part of the boundary and dryline. Therefore, the SPC has
issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the
Southern Plains from Tuesday through Wednesday morning.  The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, there
will be an added threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or
greater and hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the region.

The showers and thunderstorms will also create heavy rain from the
moisture stream northward from the Western Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southern Plains on Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a front will develop over parts of the interior Pacific
Northwest on Tuesday afternoon and move eastward to the Northern High
Plains to the Great Basin by Wednesday. The system will produce showers
and thunderstorms over the Northern Intermountain Region. On Wednesday,
the showers and thunderstorms will move to the Northern Plains and expand
into the Central Plains.

Furthermore, a sub-tropical upper-level high over Mexico will aid in
spawning Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over southern Texas
and into the Central Gulf Coast. The ridging will create a dangerous
early-season heat wave over south Texas, Central Gulf Coast, and southern
Florida. Record or near-record warm overnight temperatures will provide
little to no relief to those without adequate or reliable cooling. High
temperatures will be at or near record highs, and heat index readings over
115 degrees over the regions will also be possible. Check local media and
government websites for cooling center locations and hours, especially if
you encounter or are dealing with a loss of power. Drink plenty of water,
avoid alcohol, wear lightweight clothing, and take regular breaks indoors
or in the shade.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php