Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Valid 00Z Fri May 31 2024 - 00Z Sun Jun 02 2024

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Thursday...

 ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains and Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley
on Friday and over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains on
Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday/Friday
and Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast on Saturday...

...There are Heat Advisories over southern Texas...

A front extending from the Northern Plains to the Southern High Plains
will slowly move to the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Southern High
Plains and stall by Friday evening, then dissipating on Saturday. Moisture
streaming northward over the Plains and a dryline over western Texas will
aid in creating showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains
through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Further, there will be an added threat of severe thunderstorm
wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail, two inches or greater, over
parts of the Southern High Plains.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of the Central/Southern High Plains and Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains
and Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley through Friday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

On Friday, the front over the Central/Southern High Plains will create
showers and severe thunderstorms over the region. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the
Central/Southern High Plains from Friday through Saturday morning.  The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

Additionally, a second area of severe thunderstorms will occur over parts
of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley from Friday through Saturday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will also create heavy rain from
the moisture stream northward from the Western Gulf of Mexico over parts
of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley from Friday through Saturday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Saturday, the weakening front over the Central High Plains will have
enough energy to produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of
the region. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms over the Central High Plains on Saturday.  The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.  Furthermore, the
front over the Upper Midwest will create showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Meanwhile, a front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest will jump
into the Northern Rockies/Great Basin by Saturday evening. The system will
produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern
Intermountain Region.

Furthermore, a developing upper-level ridging over southern Texas will aid
in spawning Heat Advisories over southern Texas.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php