Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun May 05 2024 - 12Z Mon May 06 2024

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...

21Z update... Given the uptick in QPF trends over the water-logged
locations of southeast Texas, a Moderate Risk was raised for this
period. Areas of flooding are ongoing and additional rainfall will
only serve to aggravate or worsen conditions. Hi-res guidance is
depicting severals hours of rainfall rates pulsing from 1 to 3+
inch/hour as the cells cross the state. Over half of these
solutions show the heavy rains tracking across areas south and
east of of the Houston metro, so there may be the need for an
expansion of the Moderate Risk with future updates.

Campbell

They system over the Plains today will continue to move eastward on
Sunday. Storms will likely be ongoing in portions of
eastern/southeastern Texas at the start of the period Sunday and
will continue pushing eastward with training of cells appearing
likely along an east- west- oriented boundary on the south end of
a more progressive line of storms. There is inherent and typical
uncertainty with where that line will set up, especially with
recent large southward shifts in the guidance and a fairly large
spread within any suite of guidance. Thus, to cover the large
changes in the guidance, as well as very recent and ongoing heavy
rain across southeast Texas, maintained the large Slight Risk area.
For the Ozarks region, significant uncertainty also exists, as the
area will be on the northern side of the strong shortwave trough
driving all of the convective activity. The big concern is whether
or not the active convection farther south will disrupt the feed of
moisture and instability. For the moment...will not make too many
changes to the guidance that led to an expansion of the Slight
into parts of Missouri and Arkansas earlier.

Bann