TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2024

FORECAST BULLETIN 13 JUN 2024 AT 1915 UTC:

THE MAIN STORY OF THE DAY IS THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A
72-HOUR TOTAL ACCUMULATED RAINFALL TOTALS THAT RANGE BETWEEN 75
AND OVER 200 MM FROM TODAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THIS EVENT WILL
BE PROLONGED INTO NEXT WEEK AND COULD CAUSE VERY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF . THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER
THE NEXT 3 DAYS COULD BE POTENTIALLY ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM PANAMA TO EL SALVADOR. THAT BEING
SAID...OTHER AREAS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA COULD OBSERVE SIGNIFICANT 72-HOUR
ACCUMULATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...OVER 50 MM FROM TODAY INTO SUNDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC CAUSING EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS ALSO A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE ARE ALSO A SERIES OF SFC TROUGHS ACROSS THE
REGION...ONE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A SERIES OF SFC TROUGHS IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS. THERE ARE ALSO SFC TROUGHS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...TO
THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL AND ALSO WESTERN MEXICO. SEVERAL TROPICAL
WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROPICAL REGION AS WELL...THOUGH
MOSTLY SOUTH OF 12N...AND MOST OF THEM WOULD DISSIPATE BY THE TIME
THEY REACH CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE POSITIONING OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC...WILL CAUSE ONSHORE FLOW INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE THAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
UP-SLOPE EFFECT OF CERTAIN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 72-HR RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA COULD BE FROM 75 MM TO OVER 200 MM. BUT THE DAILY
ACCUMULATIONS COULD HAVE MAX VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND  100 MM EACH
DAY ACROSS DIFFERENT PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. HOWEVER...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO
BE FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE
DEVELOPS...SO THE DAILY MAX VALUES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AS MUCH AS 75 TO 150 MM IN PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF PANAMA TO EL SALVADOR.

OTHER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL REGION WILL NOT BE AS RAINY. THE
CARIBBEAN WILL HAVE THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST
STARTING ON FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BE LIMITED...WITH MAX TOTALS BETWEEN 15 AND
25 MM OR LESS EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA COULD ALSO BE A BIT RAINY...THOUGH AGAIN...NOT AS
MUCH AS CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE ARE SEVERAL TROPICAL WAVES THAT ARE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA...CAUSING DAILY MAX RAIN TOTALS OF 25 TO 50 MM...THOUGH
ISOLATED SECTIONS WITH MAX TOTALS UP TO 70MM ARE FORECAST OVER
PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION IN CENTRAL AMERICA
CLOSELY.


ALAMO (WPC)
CLARKE (CINWS)
FERNANDER (BDM)