Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Valid 12Z Thu May 30 2024 - 12Z Sat Jun 01 2024

...More active weather across the mid sections of the nation, with
additional rounds of thunderstorms, heavy rains, flash flooding and severe
weather...

...Heat to continue across the Southwest to South Texas and much of
Florida, while building across the inland valleys of California...

...Cooler than average temperatures for the Plains and large portions of
the eastern U.S. through early this weekend...

A tumultuous weather pattern sparking several rounds of robust
thunderstorms is set to continue throughout much of the central and
south-central United States. The atmospheric ingredients in play for the
next serving of severe weather include an upper trough with embedded
shortwaves crossing the Rockies today, multiple frontal boundaries draped
across the Great Plains, and ample atmospheric moisture content lifting
northward from the western Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, a reemerging
dryline over the southern High Plains will help spark strong storms this
afternoon that are forecast to progress eastward tonight over the southern
Plains. These thunderstorms may contain large hail and damaging wind
gusts, with the locations most likely impacted including the Texas
Panhandle and parts of west Texas. A broader threat for isolated severe
weather stretches throughout a majority of the central and southern
Plains. Intense rainfall rates are also possible and can lead to flash
flooding where storm motions are slow. Currently, the scattered flash
flood threat includes much of the central/southern Plains and ArkLaTex
region. The active weather and clusters of redeveloping thunderstorms are
then forecast to gradually slide eastward on Friday as an area of low
pressure pushes across the Red River Valley of the South. Additional
chances for damaging wind gusts and large hail exists across central and
eastern Texas, as well as into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Flash
flooding also remains a concern for the last day of May across the
southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Wet weather is anticipated
to expand to start the weekend, but with less focus for severe weather as
thunderstorm chances stretch from the Ohio/Tennessee valleys to the Great
Plains.

Storminess over the central U.S. will keep high temperatures below average
to end the week, while a potent high pressure system over the Lower Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley also offers refreshing afternoon temperatures in the
70s for large sections of the Eastern United States. Summer heat will be
continue to be found across the Southwest and Southern Tier. Muggy highs
into the mid-90s are forecast across the central/southern Florida
Peninsula until a cold front enters on Saturday and offers some much
needed relief in the form of persistent northeasterly flow. Upper 90s and
low 100s are anticipated to stretch from the Southwest to far western and
southern Texas through the weekend. Heat will actually build further north
into the Great Basin and interior California valleys as well, but not
quite warm enough to approach daily records. If spending time outdoors in
these regions, be sure to follow proper heat safety.

Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php