Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 15 2024 - 00Z Mon Jun 17 2024

...Scattered severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain possible across
the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and parts of the Central Plains through this
evening...

...Severe weather and flash flood risks shift to the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest this weekend...

...Above average summer heat continues across much of the Southern Tier
before expanding into the Midwest by Sunday...

A summer weather pattern ripe for mid-June is expected through this
weekend across CONUS, with scattered areas at risk for strong
thunderstorms and building heat across the southern and middle sections of
the country. After a few days of drenching rain throughout the central and
southern Florida Peninsula, lingering showers and storms could spawn
scattered instances of renewed flooding across far southern Florida
tonight before rain chances diminish this weekend. This same plume of
tropical moisture is forecast to slide toward the central Gulf Coast on
Sunday and could lead to areas of heavy rain throughout southern Louisiana
and Mississippi. Meanwhile, a cold front progressing across the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon has led to showers and thunderstorms that
could contain intense rainfall rates and gusty winds. A few of these
storms could turn severe through this evening as the cold front eventually
pushes offshore by early Saturday. Following this cold front, a
refreshingly dry airmass in place should lead to beautiful weather this
Father's Day weekend throughout the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio
Valley.

A developing storm system over the north-central U.S. will lead to active
and stormy weather extending from the Northern/Central Plains to the Upper
Great Lakes. The first round of showers and storms associated with a
leading system is forecast to spark thunderstorm activity across the
Central High Plains late this afternoon through the overnight period. A
few storms could contain large hail, damaging wind gusts, and intense
rainfall rates capable of leading to flash flooding. After weakening
overnight, these showers could push into the Upper Midwest by Saturday,
with redeveloping storms extending from the central Plains to the Middle
Missouri Valley. Multiple rounds of heavy rain could lead to areas of
flash flooding between eastern Nebraska and northern Wisconsin.
Additionally, the trailing and stronger system organizing over the
Northern Plains on Saturday will help produce strong to severe
thunderstorms across parts of eastern Montana and North Dakota. By the end
of the weekend a frontal boundary is expected to bisect the Upper Midwest
and Northern Plains, creating a focus for additional rounds of showers and
storms.

The other main weather story this weekend will be the simmering heat
impacting areas from the Southwest to the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Highs
are forecast to reach the triple digits throughout much of the Desert
Southwest, with upper 90s stretching from the Southeast to parts of the
Southern Plains. Above average temperatures are also forecast across the
central Great Basin and northern Plains ahead of a cold front, with well
below average temperatures encompassing the Pacific Northwest. By Sunday,
an upper level ridge is anticipated to begin building across the Eastern
U.S., with anomalous heat starting in much of the Midwest, Central Plains,
and Tennessee Valley. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 90s, with
maximum heat indices near 105 degrees. When combined with warm overnight
lows, major heat risk could affect anyone without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration. Be sure to remain weather aware and follow proper heat
safety!

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php