Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun May 05 2024 - 12Z Mon May 06 2024

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY...

A trough progressing eastward across Texas early this morning will
continue to support showers and thunderstorms capable of producing
heavy rainfall. Strong updraft with corresponding intense rainfall
rates are being focused and sustained by favorable instability and low
level flow interacting with a west to east oriented front. This has
set up an elongated MCS oriented such that training/repeat
convection can occur with concern greatest where this training
drops additional rainfall in southeast Texas where some areas have
already received between 4 and 13 inches of rain since late in the
week. The trend going into the morning will be for the maximum
rainfall rates around 2 inches to dimish about the time of
convective minimum...but enough start to redevelop if the
instability can recover later today. The other componetnt will be
showers that make their way northward into parts of the Mid-
Mississippi Valley during the afternoon. The area is less
hydrologically sensitive than southeast Texas but still an
excessive rainfall threat. As such...made few changes to the
Moderate Risk area hoisted on Saturday and changes to the Slight
and Marginal were based in short term radar and satellite trends

Bann