Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon May 06 2024 - 12Z Tue May 07 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

Central Plains...
A negative tilted trough will make its way out of the Rockie and
out over the central and northern plains. A corresponding area of
surface low pressure will organize over the Northern High Plains.
This results in strengthening low level flow that draws deepening
moisture and instability over the nation's mid-section. Storms that
form farther west will encounter the increasingly moist and
unstable airmass resulting in increasing potential for downpours
and for embedded higher amounts within a broader region of 1 to 2
inch areal average amounts. Given the amount of instability to
support downpours..the alignment of the flow aloft does set up the
possibility of repeat convection and excessive rainfall. Expanded
the western boundary of the Marginal a bit westward base on
guidance but the overall forecast reasoning has changed little.

Northern portion of the Western High Plains...
Model signal continued to strengthen with respect to rainfall
amounts and the potential for a soaking to potentially excessive
rain. Much of this region has nearly saturated soils which has
reduced the 3-hr FFG to as low as 1 inch. Rainfall is only one side
of the worry given because the rainfall will be falling into
lingering snowpack. Areas of local flash flooding will be
possible.

Bann