THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


CARIBBEAN FORECAST DISCUSSION




TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
207 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2022

NOTE TO ALL USERS: THE FULL BULLETIN WILL BE AVAILABLE ONLINE
AGAIN STARTING MONDAY JULY 11. ON THE WEEK OF TUESDAY JULY
05-08...WE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION OF
THE BULLETIN.

FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 05 JULY 2022 AT 18 UTC:

TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
TYPE INIT SOF 06/00 06/12 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12
TW    42W 07N   44W   47W   50W   53W   56W   59W   62W   65W
TW    45W 10N   48W   51W   54W   58W   62W   66W   70W   74W
TW    50W 09N   61W   65W   70W   73W   76W   79W   82W   85W
TW    60W 09N   69W   73W   76W   79W   81W   84W   87W   90W
TW    63W 09N   75W   79W   92W   95W   98W  101W  104W  108W
TW    85W 18N   92W   96W  100W  104W  DISS  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 42W. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN FRENCH GUIANA AND PORTION OF
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. IT WILL ALSO FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GUYANA AND SURINAME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 45W. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN
GUYANA...SURINAME...FRENCH GUIANA. IT WILL ALSO FAVOR A MAXIMA OF
15-20MM IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
A MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VENEZUELA AND A MAXIMA
OF 12-25MM IN NORTHERN BRAZIL.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 50W. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHWESTERN GUYANA. IT WILL ALSO FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN
CENTRAL/EASTERN VENEZUELA...CENTRAL GUYANA AND CENTRAL-WESTERN
SURINAME. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA...A MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA
AND NORTHWESTERN GUYANA...A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA AND A MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN SOUTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTERN BRAZIL. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF
20-40MM IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...A MAXIMA OF 40-80MM
IN WESTERN VENEZUELA AND A MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 60W. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...A MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN EASTERN COLOMBIA AND A MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN
CENTRAL/WESTERN VENEZUELA. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND 20-35MM IN PANAMA
INCLUDING NEIGHBORING AREAS OF COLOMBIA. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN JAMAICA...COSTA RICA...EASTERN
NICARAGUA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HONDURAS...CENTRAL GUATEMALA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 63W. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...A MAXIMA OF 20-40
IN WESTERN COLOMBIA AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 15-20MM
OVER THE GULF OF BELIZE...CENTRAL GUATEMALA AND PORTION OF EASTERN
MEXICO. IT WILL ALSO FAVOR 20-40MM ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
AREAS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN WESTERN MEXICO...A MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN ITS SOUTHERN PART AND A MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN ITS
EASTERN PART.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 85W. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN EASTERN MEXICO... A MAXIMA OF 40-80MM
IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR AND PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN
HONDURAS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
IN CENTRAL-WESTERN MEXICO AND A MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN ITS FAR
NORTHWESTERN AND WILL DISSIPATE LATER ON.



DIAWARA...WPC (USA)




Last Updated: 207 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2022