The Weather Prediction Center

College Park, MD

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 17 2018 - 00Z Wed Jan 24 2018

Upper ridging is forecast to remain in control for most of the
next seven days over Hawai'i as one trough to the north slides
eastward this week. A weak front may push through early Thursday
with perhaps some briefly enhanced but generally limited shower
activity but ensembles show an increase in precipitable water
values from Friday onward as a sfc high moves eastward along 35N.
This increase in pressure gradient will increase trades over the
next few days with a decrease starting this weekend. Windward and
mauka showers are expected (with some leeward spillover) over the
next several days. By next week, ensembles were in good agreement
in digging a trough to the northwest of the area and the
deterministic GFS/ECMWF show an upper low dipping below 40N near
170W. This will act to lower heights across Hawai'i but maintain a
windward trade pattern with generally light showers.


Last Updated: 714 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018