Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
318 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 00Z Fri 17 Oct 2025 - 00Z Fri 24 Oct 2025


Guidance remains reasonably well clustered for the main flow and
features, bolstering overall forecast confidence. Expect trades to
steadily ramp-up over the next few days and then again over the
weekend as high pressure settles to the northeast and then bridges
to the north of the state. Meanwhile, an unsettling upper
low/trough settling over the state will be a slow mover over the
next couple of days and shifting slowly westward. Pooling
moisture and increasing lift favor chances for some local
downpours and thunderstorms in a wet period. An overall upper
weakness may linger over the islands into next week, with enhanced
trades favoring windward terrain activity.

Schichtel