Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 00Z Thu 16 Oct 2025 - 00Z Thu 23 Oct 2025


Model and ensemble solution continue to seem reasonably well
clustered for the main flow and features, bolstering overall
forecast confidence. Expect trades to steadily ramp-up over the
next few days and then again over the weekend as high pressure
settles to the northeast and then bridges to the north of the
state. Meanwhile, an unsettling upper low/trough settling over
the state will be a slow mover over the next few days before
shifting slowly westward. Pooling moisture and increasing lift
favor chances for some local downpours and thunderstorms in a wet
period. An upper weakness may linger over the islands into next
week, with enhanced trades favoring windward terrain activity.




Schichtel