NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION-AFRICAN DESK
1952 UTC TUE SEPT 7 2004

FORECAST CHARTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING ADDRESS (ALL
LETTERS LOWER CASE):
/international/africa/charts.shtml
          
FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM 00 UTC: AT 250 HPA...THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC (NH) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CNTR LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL IRAN
TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER THE SRN
MAURITANIA ACROSS SRN IRAN...NRN SAUDI ARABIA...NRN SUDAN...NRN
CHAD...SRN NIGER AND CNTRL MALI AT 24 HRS. THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERIC (SH) COUNTERPART EXTENDS FROM WRN INDIAN OCEAN TO AN
ANTICYCLONIC CNTR LOCATED OVER NRN KENYA AND FURTHER WESTWARDS
ACROSS THE SRN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONIC CNTR LOCATED AT 07S
05E. THE NH SUBTROPICAL AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARDS TO SRN
IRAN AND CNTRL SAUDI ARABIA BY 48 HRS AS THE REST OF THE PATTERN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. BY 72 HRS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CNTR WILL
FORM OVER WRN CHAD ACROSS CNTRL ZAIRE AND NRN ANGOLA...WHEREAS THE
SRN HEMISPHERIC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH 72
HRS.

AT 700 HPA...A SERIES OF EASTERLY WAVES EXIST OVER THE ERN
ATLANTIC AND NORTH AFRICA WITH THEIR AXES RESPECTIVELY LOCATED
ALONG 30W (WAVE 1)...04W (WAVE 2)...25E (WAVE 3) AND 35E (WAVE 4)
AT 24 HRS. BY 48 HRS...THE FIRST WAVE ADVANCES TO 34W...WHEREAS
THE SECOND WAVE TO 14W...THE THIRD WAVE TO 15E AND THE FOURTH WAVE
TO 30E. BY 72 HRS THE FIRST WAVE MOVES OUT TO SEA...WHEREAS THE
SECOND WAVE SHIFTS WESTWARD TO 18W...THE THIRD TO 10E AND THE
FOURTH TO 21E. A NEW WAVE (WAVE 5) WILL APPEAR ALONG 35E.

THE RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND WAVE TROUGH WILL
SPREAD OVER SRN MALI...ERN BURKINA-FASO...SRN SIERRA LEONE...SRN
LIBERIA...EASTERN IVORY COAST...GHANA...NRN TOGO...BENIN AND WRN
AND SRN NIGERIA WITH A MAXIMUM OF 10-20 MM OVER SRN SIERRA LEONE
AND CNTRL TOGO. THE THIRD WAVE WILL YIELD RAINFALL OVER ERN
NIGERIA...CNTRL CAMEROON...WRN CAR...NRN CONGO...NORTHERN ZAIRE
AND NRN GABON WITH A MAXIMUM OF 10-20 MM OVER WRN CAR AND WRN
ZAIRE AS WELL AS 15-25 MM OVER ERN ZAIRE. THE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
WRN ETHIOPIA WILL PRODUCE SCATERRED RAINFALL OVER WRN ETHIOPIA AND
EASTERN SUDAN DURING THE FIRST 24 HR CYCLE. DURING THE 24-48 HR
CYCLE...THE SECOND WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD RAINFALL OVER SRN
SENEGAL...SRN MALI...NRN GUINEA-BISSAU...ERN GUINEA-CONAKRY...SRN
SIERRA LEONE...NRN LIBERIA...NRN IVORY COAST...WRN BURKINA-FASO
AND WRN GHANA WITH A MAXIMUM OF 20-25 MM OVER NRN IVORY COAST AND
15-25 MM OVER GHANA-IVORY COAST BORDER. THE THIRD WAVE WILL
PRODUCE RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN NIGERIA...SRN CAMEROON...WRN
CAR...NRN GABONE AND NRN CONGO WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15-25 MM OVER ERN
NIGERIA...WRN CAR AND SRN CAMEROON. THE FOURTH WAVE WILL PRODUCE
RAINFALL OVER SRN CAMEROON...EASTERN CAR AND NRN AND SRN ZAIRE
WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15-20 MM OVER NRN ZAIRE. DURING THE 48-72 HR
CYCLE...THE SECOND WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OVER SRN
SENEGAL...WRN GUINEA-BISSAU...SIERRA LEONE AND WRN LIBERIA WITH A
MAXIMUM OF 10-20 MM OVER SRN SENEGAL AND ERN GUINEA BISSAU. THE
THIRD WAVE WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL OVER NRN NIGERIA...SRN IVORY
COAST...SRN TOGO AND SRN BENIN...NRN AND SRN
NIGERIA...CAMEROON...CNTRL CHAD...NRN GABON...NRN CONGO...WRN
SUDAN AND WRN CAR WITH A MAXIMUM OF 10-20 MM OVER CNTRL TOGO-BENIN
BORDER. THE FOURTH WAVE WILL YIELD RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CAMEROON...NRN GABON...NRN CONGO AND WRN ZAIRE WITH A MAXIMUM OF
10-20 MM OVER NRN GABON.

PAULO LOPES............SMN-CMN (BISSAU-GUINEA)
MOHAN KARYAMPUDI............NCEP (WPC)