Tropical Discussion - International Desks
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1255 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Forecast Bulletin 13 February 2026 at 1800 UTC:

EDIT: Please note that the Tropical Desk charts and bulletin will
not be updated on Monday 16 February due to the federal holiday.
The next update will be on Tuesday 17 February.

In northwest Mexico, a fast moving upper level trough is located
over the region, extending from the southwest United States on
Friday. This upper level trough is accompanied by an increase in
moisture from the tropics that enter the northern Sierra Madre
Occidental throughout the day on Friday, favoring orographic lift
along the terrain, as well as moderate precipitation over Sonora
and Chihuahua. Along the Sierra Madre Occidental, expect maxima of
20-35mm, while northern Chihuahua, western Sonora, and Baja
California Sur can expect maxima of 15mm on Friday. This upper
level trough will favor frontogenesis in the foothills of the
Rocky Mountain by early Saturday morning, where an advancing cold
front is expected to propagate south and east by Saturday evening,
extending from eastern Texas and enter through northern Nuevo Leon
and extend over the northern Sierra Madre Oriental and into the
northern Mexican Plateau. Due to the low amounts of available
moisture, a trace amount of precipitation is expected in northern
Mexico on Saturday. By Sunday, the supporting upper level trough
is expected over the southern United States, and the cold front is
expected to continue propagating over eastern Mexico, located over
central Veracruz and along the northern Sierra Madre Oriental. The
presence of the cold front in the region will favor the presence
of prefrontal troughing ahead of the front, entering into the
Yucatan Peninsula and southern Veracruz regions. This will favor
light precipitation totals, as the onshore flow associated with
this system contains light to moderate levels of moisture. The
southern Sierra Madre Oriental region could expect generalized
maxima of 15-20mm on Sunday.

In the Bahamas and Caribbean regions, a cold front is expected
from the central Atlantic through the northern Bahamas, where
expect trace to light amounts of precipitation with weak moisture
convergence over the islands. To the south, the presence of the
front will favor prefrontal troughs over the Greater Antilles that
will have higher amounts of precipitable water and enhanced
moisture convergence, especially over Hispaniola, where expect
maxima of 20-35mm on Friday. Puerto Rico/VI can expect maxima of
15mm. On Saturday, the cold front will continue moving southward,
expected over Turks and Caicos and the southern Bahamas by the
evening hours, while the prefrontal features being to weaken and
decrease in moisture throughout the day. As such, a decrease in
precipitation is expected over the region, where Hispaniola can
expect maxima of 15-25mm, and Puerto Rico/VI can expect maxima of
15mm. Jamaica can expect similar amounts of 15mm as moisture is
advected from the east and the diurnal cycle favor some
precipitation in the island. By Sunday evening, the frontal
boundary begins to weaken as it approaches Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico. The region will continue to see a decrease in available
moisture, as drier air is advected from the east and the moisture
plumes associated with the remnants of the prefrontal troughs
propagate towards the western Caribbean. Expect generalized maxima
of 15-20mm over much of the Caribbean.

In Central America, the region of interest remains in the south,
where the higher amounts of available moisture is expected over
the next three days. However, the easterly trade winds are
expected to return and with them an increase in dry air advection
over the Caribbean Sea and into Costa Rica and Panama by Sunday.
On Friday, the presence of more northeasterly flow will favor the
advection of moisture currently over the Caribbean Sea into the
Costa Rica and Panama, favoring heavy precipitation with the
persistent shallow convection that will favor maxima of 35-70mm
from Costa Rica through the Bocas del Toro region of Panama. As
the upper level support for the frontal boundary over the central
Atlantic weakens over the region, winds shifting from the east
will being to advect drier air entering the region on Saturday,
and such the region can expect maxima of 20-45mm. By Sunday, the
amount of moisture continues to decrease as precipitable water
values reach below 40mm in the coastal regions of Costa Rica and
Panama, where expect maxima of 15-25mm.

In tropical South America, moisture is associating with the
presence of the Near Equatorial Trough over the Amazon Basin and
north Brasil, favoring less available moisture in the northern
portions of the continent. With less moisture and less convergence
along the coastal regions of west Colombia and Ecuador with the
decrease in wind speeds, expect west Colombia and Ecuador to see
generalized maxima of 20-45mm. The southwest Amazon Basin can
expect maxima of 35-70mm, as moisture is expected over the region
and the periphery of the Bolivian High remains over the region on
Friday. By Saturday, a lower level trough is propagating over the
Amazon Basin, expected over Venezuela and extending into the
central Amazon Basin, where it will interact with the periphery of
the Bolivian High and increase moisture in the region. From
southeast Colombia into the west and central Amazon Basin, expect
maxima of 40-80mm. On Sunday, subsidence over the eastern Pacific
will favor a weakening of the southern branch of the ITCZ,
especially over the eastern extent of the confluence. This will
allow for southerly flow along the coasts of Peru to reach north
into the coasts of Ecuador, favoring moist onshore into the region
from the south, and maxima of 20-35mm, with potential for locally
higher totals. Over the western Amazon Basin and Colombia, the
propagating low level trough is expected over the Lake Maracaibo
region and extending into south Colombia, while moisture continues
to converge over the western Amazon Basin, with diffluence
associated with the Bolivian High enhancing convection over the
region. Expect generalized maxima of 40-80mm in the region, with a
potential for higher precipitation totals on Sunday.

Castellanos...(WPC)