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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1212Z Aug 02, 2022)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
812 AM EDT TUE AUG 02 2022

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG
02/12UTC: A TUTT LOW CENTERS NEAR 23N 62W AND EXTENDS AN AXIS
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO INTO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS DESTABILIZING IN PUERTO RICO...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
SIGNATURES IN PROXY VISIBLE IMAGERY...WHICH SHOW STRATIFORM
STRUCTURES WEST OF PUERTO RICO VERSUS ISOLATED CONVECTIVE FEATURES
OVER THE VI.

THE TUTT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE...TO HAVE ITS MAXIMUM IMPACT IN
PUERTO RICO DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
PICKING UP THE PEAK IN ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY. AS THE TUTT
RETROGRADES...AN INDUCED PERTURBATION IS ALSO FORECAST TO CROSS
THE ISLANDS FROM EAST TO WEST LATE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY TRADES DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CLUSTER DIURNAL CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
CORDILLERA. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
1.5-1.75 INCHES.

AS THE TUTT AND INCUDE TROUGH CONTINUE RETROGRADING AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERING WELL TO THE NORTH IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...WILL FAVOR
A DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO ACQUIRE A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL CLUSTER
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. ENHANCED STABILITY
AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE TO LIMIT MAXIMA TO 0.5 INCHES. ON
THURSDAY...EASTERLY TRADES WILL CLUSTER AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN
WESTERN PUERTO RICO..WHERE ENHANCED SHEAR WILL AGAIN LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS TO 0.5-0.75 INCHES. AS NORTHEASTERLY TRADES RETURN
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CLUSTER IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND
PRODUCE SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO THOSE ON THURSDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE ARE
STILL DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS BEING THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE IN THE AMPLITUDE AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM.
GIVEN THAT ENHANCEMENT WITH THE TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE ARRIVING
DURING THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO CLUSTER IN SOUTH
AMERICA...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS PERTURBATION WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION ONCE IT CROSSES THE
ISLANDS SOMETIME ON SUNDAY/MONDAY.

GALVEZ...WPC (USA)