Tropical Discussion - International Desks
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Forecast Bulletin 25 February 2026 at 1915 UTC: RESENT

The upper-level pattern across the basin remains in transition. A
tilted but weak trough extends from the eastern Gulf into the
eastern Pacific, just west of central Mexico. This feature
continues to weaken and flatten in place, allowing a broader
trough to dig southward from the United States by Friday, with its
base reaching the northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, a high-pressure
ridge persists across the eastern Pacific with its axis just west
of the Baja California Peninsula, remaining fairly steady while
drifting slightly eastward. Farther south, a broad ridge across
northern South America into the southern Caribbean continues to
build today and then stabilizes through the next couple of days. A
compact upper-level jet near 100 kt extends from east of the Turks
and Caicos into the northwestern Caribbean just west of southern
Cuba. This jet strengthens tonight through Friday as the pressure
gradient tightens along roughly 20-22N, providing localized upper
divergence that supports convection near and along the weakening
frontal boundary across the northwestern Caribbean.

At mid-levels, a weak trough remains positioned across the Gulf
into central and southern Mexico, vertically stacked with the
upper-level feature and gradually weakening. Enhanced vorticity
persists along the eastern flank of this trough, mainly across
northern Central America into southern Mexico, though forcing
remains modest. Relative humidity values at 700 hPa are highest
across the northern Caribbean islands and portions of Central
America, generally along and behind the weakening frontal
boundary. Moisture across much of the Caribbean remains relatively
shallow, but deeper-layer moisture persists across western
Colombia, Panama, portions of Ecuador, northern Peru, and into the
western Amazon Basin. A mid-level moisture plume will remain
established over northwestern South America through the period,
favoring more sustained convective development there compared to
the Caribbean basin.

In the lower levels, high pressure over the central Atlantic
extends westward into the Gulf, maintaining the trade wind flow.
Additional weak high-pressure centers remain over the eastern
Pacific, including one west of central Mexico and another west of
Ecuador, both drifting westward. A weakening warm front stretches
from the Turks and Caicos into Cuba and the northwestern
Caribbean. This boundary is lifting northward while losing
definition and is expected to degenerate into a remnant trough
over Cuba and the Bahamas. The Caribbean low-level jet will
persist through the next several days, maintaining moderate
easterly flow, while the Papagayo jet also remains active. The
Panama jet is present today but weakens beginning Thursday
evening.

Precipitable water values remain highest across northwestern South
America and Panama, generally between 2.1 and 2.4 inches, with
similar values extending into northern Peru, southeastern
Colombia, and portions of the Amazon Basin of Brazil. Across the
Caribbean, precipitable water ranges between 1.2 and 1.7 inches,
though slightly lower values are expected across the eastern
Caribbean as drier air and some Saharan Air Layer intrusion move
into the region. Precipitable water anomalies are around 1.5 to 2
standard deviations above normal across much of the Caribbean,
including the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and portions of
Central America, while values across northwestern South America
remain only slightly above climatology.

In terms of precipitation, the most significant rainfall through
the period is expected across western Colombia and Ecuador, where
maxima may reach 60 mm at peak activity today into Thursday before
gradually decreasing to 35-45 mm on Friday into Saturday. Northern
Peru, southern Colombia, eastern Ecuador, and portions of western
and central Brazil can expect maxima generally near 50 mm the rest
of today into Thursday, with continued activity over the western
Amazon Basin reaching up to 35 mm Friday afternoon. Across
Hispaniola, localized maxima near 35 mm are possible today, while
most of Central America and the broader Caribbean region will
generally observe rainfall amounts in the 15-25 mm range as the
frontal boundary weakens and forcing becomes more limited. Overall
rainfall coverage is expected to increase somewhat toward the end
of the workweek across the tropical region, although amounts
outside of northwestern South America remain modest, with max
values being forecast to be between 10 and 25mm.


Alamo...(WPC)