Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025


Much of the nation east of the Rockies will be active with typical
summertime convection in a warm and unstable airmass. First, a
lingering front across the East will maintain convective threats
across the Southeast. Just south, a weak surface trough/low will
retrograde across the Florida panhandle with enhanced moisture and
forcing to fuel a heavy rain threat. Models remain all over the
place in terms of amounts both across the Southeast and Florida, so
holding with nothing more than broad marginal risks right now for
both Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday Excessive Rainfall Outlooks
across the Southeast and Florida. Rainfall may shift westward with
time more towards the Gulf Coast later in the week.

Farther north, a cold front moving through the northern/central
Plains and eastward next week will support showers and
thunderstorms with ample moisture and instability, resulting in a
heavy to excessive rainfall threat. Both EROs on Tuesday and
Wednesday feature broad marginal risk areas from the northern High
Plains eastward into the Upper Midwest and southward towards the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley. These are intentionally
broader than they need to be just given the uncertainty in the
guidance on where convective maximas are, and it is possible that
smaller embedded slight risks may be needed if the guidance comes
into better agreement.

Elsewhere, monsoonal moisture will gradually increase in coverage
across the Southwest/Four Corners/southern Rockies region. For
Tuesday, continued a marginal risk in far western Texas and the
Sacramento Mountains (particularly over very sensitive burn scars),
with the marginal risk expanding westward into southeast Arizona
by Wednesday. More widespread monsoonal moisture will make its way
northward in this region later in the week.

Hot weather across the West should start to moderate by the start
of the period with temperatures below normal farther east into the
northern Plains with high temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below
normal for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures look to be a few
degrees cooler than average for the south-central U.S. for much of
next week as clouds and rain hold temperatures down. The Great
Lakes and Northeast will see a return to above normal temperatures
on Tuesday after the trough clears, with somewhat widespread Major
(level 3/4) HeatRisk showing up in those areas by midweek.
Meanwhile the Southeast should be near normal to a few degrees
above, for typical summer heat and humidity.


Santorelli