Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 620 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Apr 29 2024 - 12Z Fri May 03 2024 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF model solutions seem best clustered with ensemble means valid for next week. A blended solution with emphasis shifting from the models to the 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means offers reasonable system detail, along with manually applied adjustments, in a complex pattern as predictability lowers from above average to near normal values. WPC product continuity is reasonably maintained in this fashion, albeit with a trend toward deeper Aleutian lows given pattern history and potentially quite favorable upper support. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Several leading, but generally weak low pressure frontal systems are slated to work into the Gulf of Alaska next week. These may act to focus areas of modest maritime winds/waves/rainfall that could clip southern tier coastal areas, albeit in an overall benign weather pattern. In this pattern, above normal temperatures are expected for much of the state overtop into the beginning of May with the highest anomalies likely positioned over the Interior. To the north of a front settling over the north-central mainland, cold high pressure over the Arctic may keep temperatures near to somewhat below normal, especially across the North Slope and guidance shows some spotty/modest precipitation. Locations near the Southcentral coast and northern Panhandle may also see near or slightly below normal readings. Meanwhile, guidance signals are growing for development of much deeper low pressure systems to mainly affect the Aleutians and Bering Sea early next week and into later next week. These offer potentially hazardous multi-day periods with enhanced wind flow/waves and rainfall to monitor. Slow eastward progressions of these organized systems within the amplified pattern may lead to enhanced lead frontal inflow and precipitation into west/southwest Alaska and downstream with re-developments into the Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak Island and then SouthCentral Alaska late next week. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html