THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION




EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1243 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

VALID 12Z SAT MAY 28 2016 - 12Z WED JUN 01 2016

MODELS AND AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE WESTERN
TROUGHING AND EASTERN RIDGING QUITE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A BLEND OF THE
RECENT GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF/ECENS MEAN GUIDANCE OFFER A GOOD
STARTING POINT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY, THE ECMWF
WAS BY ITSELF SHOWING LOWER HEIGHTS COMING BACK INTO THE PAC NW
WHILE THE ENSEMBLES AND GFS RUNS SHOW BRIEF RIDGING AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. TRENDED TOWARD THE BIGGER
NON-ECMWF CLUSTER FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE (MOSTLY DAYTIME MAXES) IN THE
WEST DUE TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND CLOUD COVER. THE EAST
WILL START WARM/HOT THIS WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK TOWARD
CLIMATOLOGY AS RIDGING FLATTENS. PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS
INITIALLY IN THE WEST AS A COUPLE SYSTEMS ROTATE THROUGH AND ALSO
IN THE PLAINS ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY, EVEN AFTER IT
DISSIPATES.

AREA OF INTEREST REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHERE SOME SORT
OF WEAK LOW -- TROPICAL OR OTHERWISE -- IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING
THE DISTURBANCE FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH NONE OF THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW A DEEP SYSTEM, THE RESULT WILL BE TO BRING
IN INCREASED MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER FLOW SUGGESTS
IT MAY GET STUCK OVER GA/SC AND DISSIPATE BUT EVERY MODEL CYCLE
SHOWS SOMETHING A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. PRECIP
FOCUS PER THE ENSEMBLES IS OVER NC/SC IN LINE WITH THE SURGE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER. 


FRACASSO





Last Updated: 1243 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016