Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Jun 16 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 20 2025


...Multi-day excessive rainfall/runoff and severe weather threat
across the north-central Plains and Midwest next week...

...Southwest U.S. to South/Southeast U.S. heat threat next week...


...General Overview...

Highly unsettled weather is expected across much of the
central/eastern U.S. next week as upper-level energies in a split
stream pattern intersect and override frontal and warm sector boundaries
with enhanced pooled moisture and instability. This will include
severe weather and excessive rainfall/runoff threats. More focused
corridors of moderate to locally heavy rainfall are forecast across
the Mid-Atlantic Monday. Main activity refocus over the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest through early-mid next week should with
cyclogenesis spread across the Midwest to the East mid-later next
week. A flash flood/severe weather threat is apparent across these
regions. High heat will linger over the Southwest into next week,
with gradually increasing hotter/muggier conditions from the south-
central to Southeast U.S. mid-later next week. There is also a
signal for an increase in tropical moisture/associated rainfall
into especially South Texas late next week to monitor.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance remains in reasonably good agreement with most of the
synoptic scale features and offers good pattern predictability.
However, guidance continues to suffer from widespread smaller
scale system and especially ample convective focus variances.
Accordingly, the WPC medium range product suite was mainly derived
from a blend of GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET model guidance along with the
compatible National Blend of Models and WPC continuity for Monday
into Wednesday for mass fields. Opted to pivot to toward the 00
UTC ECENS/Canadian ensemble means at longer time scales amid
growing forecast spread. These forecast systems seem best
compatible and downplays/delays GFS/GEFS tropical rainfall into
Texas and the western Gulf Coast later next week without better support
from the NHC.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

It generally remains the case that highly unsettled weather will
remain in the forecast across much of the central/eastern U.S.
throughout next week as numerous expected embedded impulses in the
upper-levels override frontal boundaries with seasonable moisture
in place. Uncertainty remains with the specific day-to-day details
given the short-wave energies, frontal placement, and likely
mesoscale boundaries from prior days' storms driving new
development each day, but a few more focused corridors are
apparent. First, another round of thunderstorms is expected through
portions of the Mid-Atlantic Monday (day 4) as a quasi- stationary
boundary remains draped through the region and precipitable water
values remain high. While storm coverage/rainfall amounts look to
be lower compared to prior days, wet antecedent conditions and
potential for additional storms support maintaining a Marginal Risk
in the day 4 ERO that has been shifted to the south given latest
guidance trends. Another focus will be across the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest with daily thunderstorm chances along a couple
frontal boundaries. A Marginal Risk has been maintained for the
day 4 period with areas of moderate to locally heavy rainfall
expected throughout the region. Then, on Tuesday (day 5), a greater
threat is apparent across portions of the Upper Midwest as QPF
shows the potential for several inches of rainfall with more
widespread/potentially organized convection, and a Slight Risk ERO
has been shifted slightly southward. This region will have also
experienced several days of rainfall prior to the day 5 period, so
antecedent conditions should remain wet. Storms in this region may
also bring an ample severe weather risk as per SPC, including the
potential for damaging winds with any organized convection. Expect
the focus for storms will begin to shift south and eastward
Wednesday- Friday with eastward movement of upper-
troughing/associated surface frontal boundaries and upper- level
ridging beginning to build in over the central U.S. There are also
growing signals for an enhanced tropical moisture feed from the
Gulf to northeast Mexico and South Texas in a week to monitor for
signs of system development out from the Bay of Campeche/vicinity.

Expect above average temperatures across the Intermountain West
and adjacent portions of the Plains and Southwest to persist
through next week with mean upper-ridging in place. Some more
locally intense heat is apparent across portions of the Southwest
into the southern High Plains Monday-Tuesday as highs rise into the
low to mid-100s. Temperatures will generally remain near late
Spring/early Summer averages across the eastern U.S. early next
week with unsettled conditions given the upper-flow pattern. Some
cooler, below average temperatures are forecast on Monday for the
Mid- Atlantic region as the area remains to the north of a
lingering frontal boundary. Then, during mid- to late next week,
the pattern will begin to become more amplified, with the storm
track lifting north and upper-ridging beginning to build in from
the central to eastern U.S. Conditions look to become increasingly
hotter/muggier from the Plains east through the Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys and into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic. Forecast heat indices
are over 100 for much of the region, with heat indices over 105
most likely for the Gulf Coast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and
along the Eastern Seaboard north through the Carolinas and into the
southern Mid- Atlantic.

Schichtel/Putnam


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw