THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION




EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 12Z THU MAY 28 2015 - 12Z MON JUN 01 2015


THE 00Z/25 AND 06Z/25 GFS AND GEFS MEANS WERE FAST OUTLIERS WITH
THE FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE DAY 5, SO
RELIED ON THE SOLID CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z/25 ECMWF, ECENS MEAN, AND
NAEFS MEAN AS SYNOPTIC GUIDES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH THE
HIGH SUN ANGLE IS TAKING THE BAROCLINIC BITE OUT OF THE PATTERN
ACROSS THE NATION, THE FUNDAMENTAL STRUCTURE OF THE BLOCK THAT HAS
STEERED THE FLOW FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MAY IS STILL INTACT. THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO PAINT A PLUME OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER THE CENTRAL STATES FROM TEXAS NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD, WITH
LESSER--BUT STILL APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS--OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
STATES. THE STRONGEST FRONT ON THE MAP IS THE ONE WHOSE FORWARD
MOTION IS IN CONTENTION CROSSING THE NORTHEAST MID-PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EASILY FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT TOWARD THE CANADIAN
BORDER.


CISCO





Last Updated: 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015