THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION


[Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product]
Geographic boundaries:    Map 1- [Color] [B/W Print Version]      Map 2 - [Color] [B/W Print Version]



MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1213 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

VALID OCT 26/0000 UTC THRU OCT 29/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


00Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA/
DEEP CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHEAST AK TUESDAY
CYCLONE MOVING ALONG THE MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER LATE TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: UKMET/ECMWF COMPROMISE BY DEFAULT
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE LATEST CPHC FORECAST FOR ANA IS A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z
UKMET/12Z ECMWF, WHICH IS PREFERRED BY DEFAULT.  THESE PREFERENCES
EXTEND TO THE SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR FORECAST.  SEE THE
LATEST CPHC ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM ANA FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS
ON THIS CYCLONE.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM IS A SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS INTO
CANADA, ONE OF ITS TRADITIONAL BIASES.  THE 12Z ECMWF/18Z GEFS
MEANS AGREE WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
SURFACE CYCLONE, WHICH BEFITS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE WEAKENS.  WITH ITS TRAILING FRONT, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR
THE INTERMEDIATE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/ATLANTIC CANADA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH




Last Updated: 1213 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014