THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION


[Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product]
Geographic boundaries:    Map 1- [Color] [B/W Print Version]      Map 2 - [Color] [B/W Print Version]



MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
113 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID APR 19/1200 UTC THRU APR 23/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST TUESDAY
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
SHORTWAVE PASSING BY NRN MAINE MONDAY
DEEP CYCLONE DEPARTING THE SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE

THE MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS, AND A
GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED TO IRON OUT SMALLER SCALE
DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE
MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.


SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES/NEW ENG MON & TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE:  AVERAGE

THE 12Z UKMET/12Z CANADIAN ARE STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM,
SHOWING THE MAIN LOW MIGRATING MORE NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC THAN THE
OTHER GUIDANCE.  THE CANADIAN HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS, ARGUING FOR A WEAKER SOLUTION.  THE
PATTERN IN WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED OTHERWISE FAVORS THIS SYSTEM TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE WITH TIME AS RIDGING UPSTREAM BUILDS.  THERE ARE
TWO CLUSTERS SEEN IN THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WITH THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER DOWN TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. 
THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
CONSIDERING THE CONTINUING SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH




Last Updated: 113 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014