THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION


[Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product]
Geographic boundaries:    Map 1- [Color] [B/W Print Version]      Map 2 - [Color] [B/W Print Version]



MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2016

VALID JUL 01/1200 UTC THRU JUL 05/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE LEVELS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST CANADA MONDAY
CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC FRI INTO SUN
PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY/TUESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. 
A COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE CONSENSUS IS PREFERRED TO DEAL WITH
ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS/OH VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z NAM REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM; ITS USUAL
BIAS 2-3 DAYS INTO THE FUTURE.  THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IN WHICH
THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED FAVORS SYSTEMS WITH MINIMAL AMPLITUDE. 
PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE (12Z GFS, 00Z UKMET,
00Z ECMWF, 00Z CANADIAN) WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH




Last Updated: 229 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2016