The Weather Prediction Center

Short Range Forecast Discussion

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 PM EDT Tue Oct 03 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 04 2023 - 00Z Fri Oct 06 2023

...Threat of scattered severe thunderstorms forecast across much
of the Great Plains through this evening before confining into the
Southern Plains on Wednesday...

...Heavy rain and scattered flash floods possible on Wednesday
throughout the Southern Plains and parts of the Lower Mississippi
Valley...

...Well above average and potentially record-breaking warmth
continues across the Northeast and Lower Great Lakes into
midweek...

A potent cold front gradually traversing the center of the Nation
will be the focus for much of the active weather impacting the
CONUS over the next few days. This frontal boundary current
stretches from the northern Plains to the southern High Plains and
is anticipated to spark numerous thunderstorms by this evening.
Thunderstorms are then expected to organize into a mostly
continuous line of storms as they progress eastward into the Upper
Midwest tonight. Some storms could become strong enough to produce
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes. The greatest
chances for intense thunderstorms exists across western/central
Kansas and south-central Nebraska. Here, the Storm Prediction
Center has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather
through tonight. By Wednesday, the better combination of
atmospheric instability, moisture, and upper-level forcing is
expected to confine to the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley. Thus, the threat for severe weather is forecast to stretch
from the Stockton Plateau of West Texas through northern Texas and
central/southern Oklahoma. Additionally, developing storms on
Wednesday and Wednesday night are likely to contain intense
rainfall rates. As rainfall overlaps similar regions across the
southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, several inches of
rainfall could lead to scattered flash floods. This region has
been very dry as of late, limiting the flash flood potential, but
urbanized areas will still be most at risk to rapid water rises
and street flooding. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive
Rainfall remains in effect for Wednesday and includes
north-central/northeast Texas, central/southeast Oklahoma,
central/western Arkansas, and southwest Missouri. The cold front
is forecast to continue eastward into the Great Lakes and
southward deeper into the Southern Plains on Thursday, with
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances along the boundary.

Opposite weather conditions are expected ahead of and behind the
aforementioned cold front as summer-like warmth surges northward
in the East around a large high pressure system extending from the
western Atlantic. Meanwhile, cooler weather with light high
elevation snow is possible across the Northern Rockies and
remainder of the mountainous West. In fact, Winter Weather
Advisories are in effect for parts southwest Montana and western
Wyoming. The most anomalous temperatures are anticipated over the
Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, where high temperatures into the
80s are forecast to linger through Thursday. These high
temperatures are forecast to near or break daily high temperature
records on Wednesday from Lower Michigan to Upstate New York.
Lastly, easterly flow behind a frontal boundary will continue to
produce unsettled weather across the Atlantic side of the Florida
Peninsula over the next few days.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




Last Updated: 314 PM EDT Tue Oct 03 2023