Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Valid 00Z Thu May 01 2025 - 00Z Sat May 03 2025

...Episodes of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will keep
heightened flash flooding concerns across the south-central U.S.
through early Thursday...

...Showers and embedded severe thunderstorms expected to shift
east into the Mid-Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys on
Thursday...

...Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms returns to the
south-central Plains on Friday...

A stalled frontal boundary interacting with upper-level
disturbances ejecting from the southern Rockies will remain the
focus for additional episodes of heavy rainfall and severe
thunderstorms across the south-central U.S. into early Thursday.
The heaviest rain threat will be confined to portions of
southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and western Arkansas
where a moderate risk of flash flooding remains in place. An
enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms is also embedded within this
general area. A slight risk of severe thunderstorms and flash
flooding is expected for a larger portion of the south-central
U.S. into tonight. By Thursday, a low pressure system forming
along the front will begin to track northeastward across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Midwest, which will effectively
end the heavy rainfall and severe weather threats across the
south-central U.S. However, on the other side of the system,
showers and embedded severe thunderstorms are forecast to increase
and expand across Mid-Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys.
Damaging winds, hail, and an isolated tornado are the primary
concerns from any severe storms.

Meanwhile, a Pacific frontal system moving across the
Intermountain West, Rockies and northern High Plains is bringing a
round of lower elevation rains and accumulating wet snow in the
mountains.  In the wake of the system and cold front, drier
weather moves in later tonight into Thursday as high pressure
takes control.  By early Friday morning, the cold front will dip
south into the southern High Plains and intersect moisture
returning from the western Gulf to provide increasing chances of
strong to severe thunderstorms extending east into the southern
Plains Friday afternoon.

Across the Northeast, cooler and drier air will gradually filter
into the region this afternoon and evening in the wake of a cold
front. High pressure will be in control on Thursday before showers
and thunderstorms arrive ahead of the low pressure system
approaching from the Great Lakes on Friday.

A strong ridge of high pressure extending across much of the
eastern U.S. will bring well above average warmth to much of the
region through mid to late week. Forecast highs in the 70s and 80s
will be common. Overall near average temperatures are in store for
the western and central U.S. through Thursday before warming up
some across the Pacific Northwest heading into the latter half of
the week.

Miller/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php