The Weather Prediction Center

Short Range Forecast Discussion

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 24 2023 - 00Z Sun Mar 26 2023

...Strong to severe thunderstorms will be a significant concern
this evening and continuing through Friday night from the Southern
Plains, the Mid-South, and Lower Mississippi Valley to possibly
the Ohio Valley...

...Widespread heavy rain and flash flooding setting up across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley this evening through Friday

...An intensifying low pressure system will likely bring very
strong winds, heavy rain/thunderstorms into the Ohio Valley as
heavy snow could develop across the Midwest into lower Michigan
Saturday morning...
...Unsettled weather and chilly temperatures with locally heavy
mountain snowfall to continue across the West...

...Very warm temperatures will prevail through the end of the week
across much of the South through the Ohio Valley and into the

A quasi-stationary front will be the focus for severe
thunderstorms across central Texas and Oklahoma tonight. The
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms issued by the Storm Prediction
Center highlights the possibility of large and potentially
destructive hail, isolated severe wind gusts, or a tornado
associated with this evening's threat. Abundant moisture, supplied
by the Gulf of Mexico, will interact with the aforementioned
quasi-stationary front, producing heavy rain and subsequent flash
flooding risks from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley
tonight. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for
much of the Ozarks region where potential 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates
could cause flash flooding.

A deepening upper-level trough spinning through the Southern
Plains will then kick on a surface low pressure system to begin
rapidly intensifying over northern Texas and into the Mid-South
through Friday. The attendant cold front will become the focus for
severe weather from the ArkLaTex to the Tennessee Valley Friday
afternoon into the evening. A Moderate risk of Severe
Thunderstorms is in effect for portions of the Lower Mississippi
Valley where, according to the Storm Prediction Center, some
strong tornadoes, damaging winds and hail are expected. Meanwhile,
the quasi-stationary front responsible for dangerous weather
tonight will be responsible for another round of heavy rainfall
from the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley. There's a Moderate Risk of
Excessive Rainfall from northeastern Arkansas along the Ohio River
into southwestern Ohio where 2-4 inches of rainfall over primed
soils and streams may cause flash flooding.

Heavy snow and strong winds are likely to develop on the north
side of the dynamic Mid-South/Midwest system early Saturday
morning, and continue into the evening. Between 4-8 inches of snow
is expected by Sunday morning from southeastern Wisconsin to the
Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This could lead to tricky travel
across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Elsewhere, chilly
temperatures persist across the West, while seasonably warm
temperatures spread across the southeastern quadrant of the
country through this weekend. Heavy snow blankets the western
mountains over the next couple of days, as well. There's a
critical fire weather area for portions of west Texas tomorrow due
to dry and windy conditions.


Graphics available at

Last Updated: 421 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023