The Weather Prediction Center

Short Range Forecast Discussion

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2015

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 06 2015 - 12Z Thu Oct 08 2015

...Flash flooding possible across portions of the Four Corners and
Desert Southwest regions...

...Severe thunderstorms possible for portions of Arizona, New
Mexico and Texas...

The low pressure system, and its associated surface front that has
been wreaking havoc along the Eastern Seaboard this past week,
will track further away from the coast. A few lingering showers
will be possible today, but overall the heavy rain has ceased. The
threat for flash flooding has diminished as well, however
widespread areal flooding is expected to continue for the
Carolinas. The eastern third of the CONUS will be dominated by
high pressure through midweek, therefore conditions will be dry
and pleasant. Temperatures will average around 5 degrees above the
seasonal normal for early October.

Much of the Southwest and the Central/Southern Rockies will have
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through Thursday.
An upper-level low is forecast to move across the Southwest U.S.
an usher warm, moist air from the Pacific into the area. Locally
heavy rain will be possible, which could elevate the risk for
flash flooding for some areas. Most areas are forecast to receive
0.50 to 1.50 inches by Thursday. Southeast New Mexico and West
Texas could see amounts of 2 to 3 inches, with isolated higher
totals possible. The risk of flash flooding will be more prominate
in this region. The upper-level low will move east on Wednesday,
bringing showers and thunderstorms into the southern High Plains.

Meanwhile, a surface low pressure system will develop across the
High Plains on Wednesday as an upper-level disturbance interacts
with a surface front lingering in the lee of the Rockies.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop from
the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. Precipitation
amounts will be on the light side, generally less than 1 inch,
over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region.


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Last Updated: 447 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2015