The Weather Prediction Center

Short Range Forecast Discussion

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 23 2017 - 00Z Sat Mar 25 2017

...Severe weather is possible on Thursday across the
Southern/Central High Plains...

...Conditions will be ripe for wildfire production from the Four
Corners to the Southern/Central High Plains...

...Wet weather likely from northern California up to the Pacific
Northwest coast...


The upper pattern will be quite amplified during the period with
the primary system of interest entering the Desert Southwest by
later tonight. As this upper trough churns eastward, it is
expected to become more closed off in nature which will slow its
forward progression. This particular feature will help set the
stages for well above normal temperatures, on the order of 15 to
20 degrees above climatology, across the center of the country on
Thursday. Further, per the recent outlook from the Storm
Prediction Center, some thunderstorms may become severe across the
Southern/Central High Plains. This should especially be the case
along the dry line/advancing cold front. Besides the threat for
severe storms, an enhanced threat for wildfire production is in
place given dry gusty winds across the Four Corners region into
the adjacent High Plains.

Besides the heavy rainfall/severe weather threat, expect
accumulating snows underneath the parent upper low across the
Southern/Central Rockies. The current forecast suggests amounts in
the 6 to 12 inch range over the higher elevations of Colorado,
Utah, and Wyoming. Further east, a northward lifting warm front
will keep conditions unsettled from Nebraska eastward into the
Middle Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes region. The
heaviest rainfall amounts are expected across Nebraska which will
be closer to the comma-head of precipitation near the deep surface
cyclone.

Elsewhere, a deep upper trough along the West Coast will spread
moderate to locally heavy precipitation to areas from coastal
Central California northward to the international border with
Canada. As usual, orographics will play a key role in placement of
the more concentrated activity. The heaviest amounts may be across
the Siskiyou and Shasta Ranges where the onshore flow and vertical
motions will be strongest. And lastly, the eastern seaboard can
expect a cool Thursday morning with temperature anomalies
approximately 10 to 15 degrees below average. This is in response
to a substantial radiational cooling night given a strong surface
anticyclone in place.


Rubin-Oster


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php




Last Updated: 316 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017