Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Valid 00Z Sun May 25 2025 - 00Z Tue May 27 2025

...Heavy rain and flash flooding quite possible over parts of the
southern Plains into the Ozarks on Sunday...

...Severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday from Oklahoma and Texas
eastward into the Southeast...

A frontal boundary extends from the Rockies through the southern
Plains and eastward into the Southeast. This will act as a focus
for rain/thunderstorms over the next couple of days as it
separates a warm/humid air mass closer to the Gulf Coast from a
more temperate air mass over the Mid-South. Rounds of rainfall
over already soggy areas may lead to flooded roads and/or rivers
-- Turn around. Don't drown! There is a Moderate Risk (level 3 of
4) for excessive rainfall and flash flooding over northeastern
Oklahoma into southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas
(Ozarks region) on Sunday. In addition, severe weather is possible
along and south of the frontal boundary, especially over Oklahoma
into north Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather there, with large
hail and strong, damaging winds the main threat. Tornadoes are
also possible.

Over the Northeast, a slowly departing system will maintain a cool
pattern over the region for the Holiday weekend, but temperatures
will moderate into Monday. Still, highs will only be in the
50s/60s to the north and low-mid 70s over most of the Mid-Atlantic
(south of I-76). Isolated afternoon showers Sunday will decrease
further on Monday as high pressure approaches from the Great
Lakes.

Over the West, a generally dry and warm Sunday will lead to
increasing clouds, rain showers, and cooler temperatures by Monday
west of the Continental Divide. Temperatures will rise well into
the 80s over the interior West on Sunday but will remain much
cooler along the coast. The approaching cold front will come
ashore Sunday evening with some showers for the lowlands that
clear areas west of the Cascades by Monday afternoon.

Fracasso

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php