Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 333 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Apr 23 2024 - 12Z Thu Apr 25 2024 ...Unsettled weather and severe thunderstorm chances ramp up across parts of the central and southern Plains this week... ...Above average temperatures throughout the western and central United States, with cooler weather in the Great Lakes and much of the East... The mostly quiet weather pattern experienced the last few days over the Lower 48 is expected to gradually retreat as an upper trough develops over the western U.S. midweek and sparks increasing thunderstorm chances throughout the Great Plains and parts of the Midwest. First, a pair of cold fronts crossing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today will spread showers and isolated thunderstorms over the region before reaching the Northeast on Wednesday. Temperatures may drop rapidly enough for precipitation to end as snow across northern New England. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front entering the southern Plains will be the focus for thunderstorms over the next few days from northern and West Texas to central Oklahoma. A few storms could be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts across northwest Texas today, which has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather. A few isolated severe thunderstorms may also develop off a southern High Plains dryline on Wednesday ahead of the approaching western upper trough. This upper level system will aid in more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the central and southern Plains on Thursday. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible as low pressure develops over the central High Plains and a strengthening dryline pushes eastward, with most of the severe potential located between south-central Nebraska and northern Texas. Along with the severe thunderstorm threat, heavy rain could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. Elsewhere, unsettled weather is also in the forecast throughout parts of the Great Basin and eventually the Pacific Northwest by Thursday as initial upper ridging and well above average temperatures gradually erode. Much of the rainfall is expected to be mostly beneficial outside of any lightning potential with thunderstorms over the central Great Basin. Highs throughout the southwest are anticipated to reach the 80s and 90s through Wednesday, with 60s and 70s for much of the Intermountain West. Cooler weather is in store for the Great Lakes and much of the eastern U.S. beginning with the potential for frost this morning from the southern Appalachians to southern New England. Lows dipping into the 30s here may damage sensitive plants and vegetation if left unprotected. Temperatures are forecast to rebound this afternoon as highs reach into the 60s and 70s ahead of the next spring cold front entering from the Great Lakes tonight. This will allow for midweek temperatures to drop to around 10 to 20 degrees below average for the Great Lakes and Northeast, equating to high temperatures ranging from the 40s in northern locations to 60s along the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php