THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION


[Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product]
Geographic boundaries:    Map 1- [Color] [B/W Print Version]      Map 2 - [Color] [B/W Print Version]



EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...VALID 18Z TUE SEP 23 2014 - 00Z THU SEP 25 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

CONCERNS FOR POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG
COASTAL SECTIONS OF NC INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.  A WET PATTERN
TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST---SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTS AS THE CLOSED LOW
THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROF FORECAST TO
LIE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTS WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST MODELS IN
KEEPING THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ALONG AND JUST OFF THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
PENINSULA.   INTENSE RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN NC INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST VA---WITH RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY IN MORE
URBANIZED REGIONS.  THE SLIGHT RISK WAS EXPANDED OUTSIDE OF THE
PREFERRED QPF SOLUTION TO COVER SOME OF THE SPREAD IN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS. 


ORAVEC




Last Updated: 254 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014