THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION


[Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product]
Geographic boundaries:    Map 1- [Color] [B/W Print Version]      Map 2 - [Color] [B/W Print Version]



EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
417 AM EDT FRI JUL 01 2016

...VALID 12Z FRI JUL 01 2016 - 12Z SAT JUL 02 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 S LXT 25 S SZL 45 NNW SGF 35 NNE JLN 25 N JLN 40 ENE WLD
10 SE PNC 10 N WDG 20 W AVK 45 NNW WWR 30 N LBL 50 N EHA
15 S LAA 25 S PUB 20 SSW FCS 30 WNW AFF 10 WNW DEN 20 WSW AKO
25 SSE AKO 30 NNW ITR 35 ESE GLD 10 W HLC 45 N RSL 10 SSW CNK
25 WNW MHK 20 S LXT.



...4 CORNERS REGION...

MONSOON MSTR ROTATING AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A FLATTENING UPR
RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND IN ADVANCE OF A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
WEAK N/S S/WV TROF WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TOWARD WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION..PREDOMINANTLY DURING THE AFTN/EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS
FROM THE GT BASIN/4 CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN SRN ROCKIES. 
CONFIDENCE IN MODEL DETAILS REMAINS LOW GIVEN LARGE MODEL
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED AND ARGUES FOR AN ENSEMBLE APCH
TOWARD QPF.  THAT SAID...ABOVE NORMAL PWS ALONG WITH DEEP LAYERED
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW EAST OF THE S/WV TROF COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINS UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN SOME ISOLD SPOTS THAT COULD
CONTRIBUTE TOWARD ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES. 



..ERN CO EWD INTO KS/WRN MO...

THERE IS ABOVE AVG MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY TO
PSBL EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENT WILL UNFOLD ACRS KS FRI NIGHT AS
COMBINATION OF S/WV ENERGY EJECTING SLOWLY EWD OUT OF CO INTERACTS
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET  AND POOLING OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH PWS
ALONG AND NORTH OF QSTRNY E/W FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR THE SRN KS/NRN OK
BOARDER.  THE NAM CONEST IS WELL NORTH OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS ACRS KS..INCLUDING MANY OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND THIS WAS GIVEN LITTLE WEIGHT.  THE 00Z ARW AND
NMM WERE BOTH SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE 12Z EC AND 00Z GFS WHICH
ALIGNED WELL WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM..AND THUS WERE GIVEN A BIT
MORE WEIGHT.  THE MDTLY STG SLY TO SWLY LOW LEVEL JET BELOW MAINLY
WLY FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS BEFORE WHAT SHOULD BE AN ORGANIZED MCS PUSHES
EWD INTO ERN KS/WRN MO BY SAT MRNG.  A STRIPE OF 1 TO 2 INCH AREAL
AVG RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF THE CENTER PORTION OF
KS...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS OF A MORE SCTD
VARIETY ARE EXPECTED ACRS ERN CO.  LOCALIZED RAINS OF 3 TO 4+
INCHES MAY OCCUR FRI NIGHT ACRS THIS REGION...WHICH COULD RESULT
IN SOME FLOODING RAINS. 

SULLIVAN




Last Updated: 417 AM EDT FRI JUL 01 2016