THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION


[Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product]
Geographic boundaries:    Map 1- [Color] [B/W Print Version]      Map 2 - [Color] [B/W Print Version]



EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...VALID 18Z TUE JUL 22 2014 - 00Z THU JUL 24 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...

12Z RAOB DATA AND BLENDED TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF MID
AFTERNOON SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...WITH HIGHEST VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES ALONG THE
NORTHERN SC COAST INTO NC AND THE OUTER BANKS.  MODELS STILL
INDICATE THAT VERY DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC..SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES..AND ESPECIALLY SO FROM FL AND GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
BACK OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY.  WHILE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION TODAY HAS BEEN CONFINED IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND OFFSHORE
OF NC...STILL THINK THAT THERE WILL BE INCREASING COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
WHILE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS...THE
COASTAL AREAS OF NC AND SC WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW IS
MAXIMIZED AND WHERE A WEAK/POORLY DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE IN
PLACE TO HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY.  HERE..AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS APPROACHING AN INCH ARE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAINS DUE TO THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE AND
SLOW CELL MOVEMENT..ALL OF WHICH COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME
RUNOFF CONCERNS.

...NEW MEXICO...

THE AIRMASS OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TX WAS ANONYMOUSLY
MOIST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING SOME 125 TO 150 PCT
OF NORMAL ACCORDING TO SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES.  CONVECTION
WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF A MID LEVEL
HIGH...AS WELL AS OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
NM...AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THAT THE STORM MOTION SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SLOW...STILL THINK ISOLATED PROBLEMS DUE TO RUNOFF WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE COMPLEX TERRAIN...MAY RESULT GIVEN
SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

BANN





Last Updated: 257 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014