THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICE DISCUSSION




PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 00Z MON APR 27 2015 - 00Z THU APR 30 2015


DAYS 1 AND 2...

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

THE BEGINNINGS OF A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM HAS STARTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS WELL AS THE SAN
JUAN RANGE AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...AS A DYNAMIC JET
STREAK DROPS INTO AZ/NM.  ORGANIZED AREA OF MDT TO HEAVY SNOW
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. 
AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE FOOTHILLS...THE THERMAL PROFILES
SHOULD BECOME UNFAVORABLE TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY SNOW
MAKING ITS WAY OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DUE TO A WARMER AIRMASS AND
LESS DYNAMIC COOLING.  TENDED TO GIVE MOST WEIGHT TO THE 26/12Z
RUN OF THE NAM GIVEN ITS BETTER VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL
RESOLUTION...BUT ALSO INCORPORATED SOME OF THE MOST RECENT
GFS/ECMWF RUNS AS WELL.  THIS YIELDED A MDT RISK OF A FOOT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST NM WITH A
RISK OF LESSER AMOUNTS RUNNING WEST AND NORTH FROM THERE.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

DAYS 2 AND 3...

THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOW AND/OR SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT.

BANN






Last Updated: 341 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015