THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICE DISCUSSION




PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016

VALID 00Z MON MAY 16 2016 - 00Z THU MAY 19 2016

DAYS 1-3...


...NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

A LATE SEASON SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.S..  THE COMBINATION OF
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE
TERRAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE
ABSAROKA...WIND RIVER...AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST
WYOMING AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY MONDAY...THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE HIGHER
REACHES OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS INCREASE
AROUND A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL CENTERED BACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S...SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH THE DETAILS OF ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...SO AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WAS USED FOR
THE WPC FORECAST.     


THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
NATIONWIDE.


***THIS IS THE LAST SET OF OPERATIONAL PRODUCTS FROM THE WPC
WINTER WEATHER DESK FOR THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON. PRODUCTS FOR
THE 2016-17 WINTER SEASON WILL BEGIN ON SEPTEMBER 15, 2016.***


GERHARDT





Last Updated: 425 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016