|
|
|
Storm overview |
|
Evolving model & forecaster perspectives |
|
Uncertainty & current forecast accuracy |
|
HPC’s role & communicating uncertainty |
|
Concluding remarks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Day 7 (Mon, Feb 26) |
|
High model uncertainty |
|
Northwesterly flow in many model forecasts |
|
HPC – storm moving eastward out to sea |
|
Day 6 (Tue, Feb 27) |
|
Considerable uncertainty in the models |
|
Increased indication of east coast troughing |
|
HPC – potential for east coast storm with heavy
snow possible |
|
Day 5 (Wed, Feb 28) |
|
Model uncertainty still high |
|
HPC – potential for east coast storm continues |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Day 4 (Thu, Mar 1) |
|
ECMWF ensembles not available |
|
Models starting to converge on development of
major cyclone off mid-Atlantic coast (decreasing uncertainty) |
|
HPC – potential for very serious coastal storm
for March 4 & 5, including heavy snow & beach erosion |
|
Day 3 (Fri, Mar 2) |
|
Some model runs differ from AVN/MRF on many
details of east coast storm |
|
Despite decreasing uncertainty, significant
uncertainty remained |
|
HPC – potential for a blizzard with 2 feet of
snow |
|
Major pending west coast rain/snow storm |
|
NOAA press release |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Day 2 (Sat, Mar 3) |
|
Major increase in model forecast consistency |
|
Model development of the storm slowed |
|
HPC – high confidence for possible blizzard
conditions in
mid-Atlantic and the Northeast |
|
HPC – decreased likelihood of major snow event
for DC to NY |
|
NOAA press conference |
|
|
|
Day 1 (Sun, Mar 4) |
|
Good model agreement |
|
Storm forms off the coast of North Carolina |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mission statement:
to provide forecast,
guidance, and analysis products and services
1) to support the daily
public forecasting activities of the NWS and its customers, and
2) to provide tailored support to other government agencies in emergency
and special situations. |
|
Vision statement:
to be recognized by
the NWS field offices and other forecast groups as a center of excellence
for: |
|
heavy precipitation forecasting |
|
medium-range forecasting |
|
real-time numerical model
diagnostics & interpretation |
|
surface analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
starting point |
|
second opinion |
|
focusing mechanism |
|
unifying influence |
|
emergency backup |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Very busy forecast period with heavy rains in
the SE preceding the Nor’easter, plus major rain event in southern CA. |
|
Events handled well overall, except for east
coast megaopolis. |
|
Difficult forecast situation: split flow / blocking |
|
Models indicated east coast storm a week ahead |
|
Given uncertainty in model guidance, very good
consistency in HPC storm forecasts day-to-day |
|
Forecast uncertainty apparent in the model runs
and mentioned in HPC narrative products |
|
Uncertainty not well perceived by the public |
|
Accuracy of precipitation forecasting has
improved significantly, but still much room for improvement |
|
Public expectations increasing faster than
forecast accuracy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Eastern Region Comprehensive Review of the
March 4-7, 2001, Northeast
Snowstorm” by NWS
Eastern Region staff |
|
“March 4-6 East Coast Snowstorm” by Rich Grumm |
|
Doug
Berz, HPC |
|
Ed
Danaher, HPC |
|
Pete
Manousos, HPC |
|
Brett
McDonald, HPC |
|
Dave
Reynolds, HPC |
|
|
|