Very busy forecast period with heavy rains in the SE preceding the Noreaster, plus major rain event in southern CA.
Events handled
well overall, except for east coast megaopolis.
Difficult forecast situation: split flow / blocking
Models indicated east coast storm a week ahead
Given uncertainty in model guidance, very good consistency in HPC storm forecasts day-to-day
Forecast uncertainty apparent in the model runs and mentioned in HPC narrative products
Uncertainty not well perceived by the public
Accuracy of precipitation forecasting has improved significantly, but still much room for improvement
Public expectations increasing faster than forecast accuracy