The evolving model and
forecaster perspective (cont.)
Day 4 (Thu, Mar 1)
ECMWF ensembles not available
Models starting to converge on development of major cyclone off
mid-Atlantic coast (decreasing uncertainty)
HPC – potential for very serious coastal storm for March 4 & 5,
including heavy snow & beach erosion
Day 3 (Fri, Mar 2)
Some model runs differ from AVN/MRF on many details of east coast
storm
Despite decreasing uncertainty, significant uncertainty remained
HPC – potential for a blizzard with 2 feet of snow
Major pending west coast rain/snow storm
NOAA press release