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Very
busy forecast period with heavy rains in the SE
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preceding
the Noreaster, plus major rain event in
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southern
CA.
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Events
handled well overall, except for east coast megaopolis.
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Difficult
forecast situation: split flow /
blocking
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Models
indicated east coast storm a week ahead
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Given
uncertainty in model guidance, very good
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consistency
in HPC storm forecasts day-to-day
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Forecast
uncertainty apparent in the model runs and
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mentioned
in HPC narrative products
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Uncertainty
not well perceived by the public
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Accuracy
of precipitation forecasting has improved
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significantly,
but still much room for improvement
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Public
expectations increasing faster than forecast
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accuracy
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