WPC Verification

Forecast Products
 
QPF's:    24-Hourly    6-Hourly    Days 4-5    5-Day Total
Medium Range:    Min Temps    Max Temps    Prob of Pcpn (PoP)    WPC Grids
Sea-level Pressure
 
Verification for specific events:    Hurricane Isaac QPF    Hurricane Sandy QPF
 

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts


How Threat Scores and Bias are Computed

24-Hourly QPF's

Monthly Record Threat Scores

Annual WPC Day-1 / Day-2 / Day-3 Threat Scores
and Observed Areal Coverage;
Annual WPC Day-1 / Day-2 / Day-3 Bias
.50 inch (1961-2015) 1.00 inch (1961-2015) 2.00 inches (1970-2015)
Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

Annual WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
1993-2015
1.00 inch
Day 1 Threat Percent Improvement Over NWP

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
July 2015 to July 2016
.50 inch 1.00 inch 2.00 inches
Day 1 Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias
Day 2 Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias
Day 3 Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

Monthly WPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (.50", 1.00", 2.00")
June 2015 to June 2016
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3
Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

Monthly WPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (Day 1 / Day 2 / Day 3)
June 2015 to June 2016
.50 inch 1.00 inch 2.00 inches
Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

NAM and GFS QPF Verification by Region
 
Object-oriented Verification



6-Hourly QPF's

Monthly Record Threat Scores

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Update
June 2015 to June 2016
00-06 Hours .25 inch .50 inch

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 1
June 2015 to June 2016
06-12 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
12-18 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
18-24 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
24-30 Hours .25 inch .50 inch

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 2
June 2015 to June 2016
30-36 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
36-42 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
42-48 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
48-54 Hours .25 inch .50 inch

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 3
June 2015 to June 2016
54-60 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
60-66 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
66-72 Hours .25 inch .50 inch
72-78 Hours .25 inch .50 inch

WPC vs. NWP Guidance - Threat Scores
July 2015 to June 2016
All 6-Hour Periods .25 inch .50 inch



Days 4-5 QPF's

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
June 2015 to June 2016
.50 inch 1.00 inch 2.00 inches
Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

Monthly WPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons
.50", 1.00", 2.00"
June 2015 to June 2016
Threat Bias



5-Day Total QPF's

Monthly WPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
June 2015 to June 2016
.50 inch 1.00 inch 2.00 inches 3.00 inches 4.00 inches
Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias Threat Bias

Monthly WPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons
.50", 1.00", 2.00", 3.00", 4.00"
June 2015 to June 2016
Threat Bias



Medium-Range Forecasts


Overview of data plotted on annual charts

Minimum Temperatures


Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2015)
WPC MAE for days 3-7 min temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 3 min temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 4 min temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 5 min temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 6 min temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 7 min temp fcsts


Monthly Performance Charts (July 2015 - July 2016)
WPC RMS errors for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts
WPC percent improvement over MOS MAE (adjusted stations only) for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts
WPC winning percent vs MOS for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts


Year-to-Date Performance Chart (January - July 2016)
WPC improvement over MOS MAE, including percentage of stations adjusted, for Days 3-7 min temp fcsts



Maximum Temperatures


Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2015)
WPC MAE for days 3-7 max temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 3 max temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 4 max temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 5 max temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 6 max temp fcsts
WPC -vs- Guidance MAE for day 7 max temp fcsts


Monthly Performance Charts (July 2015 - July 2016)
WPC RMS errors for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts
WPC percent improvement over MOS MAE (adjusted stations only) for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts
WPC winning percent vs MOS for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts


Year-to-Date Performance Chart (January - July 2016)
WPC improvement over MOS MAE, including percentage of stations adjusted, for Days 3-7 max temp fcsts



Probability of Precipitation (PoP)


Monthly Performance Charts - 24-Hour PoP (July 2015 - July 2016)
WPC Brier scores for days 3-7 PoP fcsts
WPC percent improvement over MOS Brier score (adjusted stations only) for days 3-7 PoP fcsts
WPC winning percent vs MOS for Days 3-7 PoP fcsts


Year-to-Date Performance Chart - 24-Hour PoP (January - June 2016)
WPC improvement over MOS Brier score, including percentage of stations adjusted, for Days 3-7 PoP fcsts


Monthly Performance Charts - 12-Hour PoP (July 2015 - July 2016)
WPC Brier scores for days 3-7 12-Hour PoP forecasts
WPC percent improvement over MOS Brier score for days 3-7 12-Hour PoP forecasts


WPC Gridded Medium-Range Forecasts



How grids are verified
 
Monthly Performance Charts (June 2016)
Note:  MAE = Mean Absolute Error
 
Forecasts prepared by WPC meteorologists
MOS/WPC/NDFD Minimum Temperature 
(Days 4-7)
MAE Bias
MOS/WPC/NDFD Maximum Temperature 
(Days 4-7)
MAE Bias
MOS/WPC/NDFD 12-Hour PoP 
(Days 4-7)
Brier Score

Products derived from forecasts prepared by WPC meteorologists
MOS/WPC/NDFD Dew Point Temperature 
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
MAE Bias
MOS/WPC/NDFD Wind Speed 
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
MAE Bias
MOS/WPC/NDFD Wind Direction 
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
MAE Bias
WPC/NDFD Cloud Cover 
(valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
MAE Bias


Mean Sea Level Pressure (PMSL)


WPC -vs- Guidance Anomaly Correlations