Graphic for MPD #0002
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 2
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
754 PM EST MON JAN 2 2017
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHERN GA...FL PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 030053Z - 030653Z
 
SUMMARY...REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FROM THE MOBILE BAY AREA TO
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH 7Z TONIGHT, WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2
INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.  THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST.

DISCUSSION...0045Z REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO ENHANCED
BANDS OF CONVECTION STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO,
EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.  A POTENT
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI IS
PROVIDING ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER THIS REGION.  THE 00Z TALLAHASSEE
SOUNDING INDICATED 30-35 KNOTS OF DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG PER THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS.  RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2+ INCHES PER
HOUR ARE ALREADY IN PROGRESS, AND MULTIPLE REPORTS OF AT LEAST 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL THUS FAR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  THIS HAS LOWERED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS, RAP MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET ON THE
ORDER OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA
THROUGH 7Z.  THE INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT, SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AND APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THE ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
TRAINING LIKELY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.   THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SCENARIO LED BY
RECENT CONSISTENT RUNS OF THE HRRR.
 
SULLIVAN/HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CHS...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   32768161 30808257 29538492 30228633 30348790 
            31448721 32658615 32738397 


Last Updated: 754 PM EST MON JAN 02 2017