Graphic for MPD #0003
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 3
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
206 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2017
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 030705Z - 031105Z
 
SUMMARY...REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH 11Z THIS MORNING, WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE POSSIBLE.  THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...645Z REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD WEST TO
EAST BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PANDHANDLE, AND
LIFTING VERY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.  ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT FELL PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION, THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS.  

A POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE IS PROVIDING ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER THIS
REGION.  RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF DEEP SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
PER THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS.  PW VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE
ELEVATED, ON THE ORDER OF 1.8 INCHES.  RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2+ INCHES PER HOUR ARE ALREADY IN PROGRESS, AND
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF AT LEAST 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THUS FAR HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY NEAR THE
GULF COAST, AND APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET MAX SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SUSTAIN THE ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH 11Z.  THE LATEST
HRRR AND ARW MODEL SUGGESTS AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
 
HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   31508449 31218231 30658182 30138188 29898242 
            29788309 29958381 29888418 29708454 29518495 
            29588532 29878559 30178603 30368650 30788665 
            31468618 


Last Updated: 206 AM EST TUE JAN 03 2017