Graphic for MPD #0069
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0069
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1222 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 010522Z - 011122Z

SUMMARY...STRENGTHENING MST/LOW LEVEL WIND PARAMETERS SUPPORTING
INCREASED CONVECTION AND GROWING FLASH FLOODING THREAT ACROSS OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...IR/RADAR MOSAIC DEPICT STEADY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE CELLS/SUPER CELLS ACROSS THE
TRI-RIVERS AREA OF SW KY AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MO ATTM.  AUGMENTED
RAP ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST A SFC TO 850 CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SE MO INTO W KY ATTM ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WITH CURRENT VWP INDICATE FLOW OF
60KTS AT KPAH WITH OVER 70KTS AT KNQA THAT WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX
AND MASS CONVERGENCE TO MAINTAIN AND EXPAND CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. 
WV/IR LOOP DENOTES CORE OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING THROUGH
THE THE NW AR OZARKS TOWARD SE MO. WVP/GOES AMVS AND RAP FORECAST
SUGGEST THIS CORE WILL SPLIT WITH MODEST DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE
LOWER OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS AS THE CORE APPROACHES PROVIDING MODEST
BUT INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/EVACUATION.  THOUGH THE MAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE WX (PLEASE REFER TO SPC MCD
228/229) THE MID-60S SFC TDS AND STRONG FLUX WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION WITH RATES UP TO 1.5"/HR AS WELL. 
FAST CELL MOTIONS MAY REDUCE THE TOTALS FROM ONE GIVEN CELL...THE
STRONG LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT AND WITH NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL STEERING COLUMN THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME TRAINING
OF THE CELLS AND COMPOUNDED TOTALS OVER A 1-3HR TIME PERIOD. 
WET GROUND CONDITIONS FROM EARLY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY FROM
LIVINGSTON TO MCLEAN COUNTIES IN KY MAY BE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO AN ADDITIONAL BOUT OF 1-2" FROM CELLS ENTERING W KY
ATTM. STILL GREATEST THREAT/LIKELIHOOD FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST LATER IN THE EARLY MORNING AS THE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO
EXPAND UPSCALE AND MOVE INTO LOWERED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
BELOW 1.0"/HR AND 1.5"/HR OVER N KY INTO S OH.

HI-RES GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE REGION
OF DEVELOPMENT OVER W KY CURRENTLY THOUGH THE 00Z ARW/NMMB DID NOT
INITIALIZE THE INTENSE SUPERCELL SW IND ATTM...THAT CLEARLY WILL
MAINTAIN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS THESE GROW UPSCALE AS WELL WITH
TRAINING ACROSS SE IND INTO N KY BY 07-08Z.  STILL THE 04Z HRRR
AND 00Z ARW APPEAR TO HAVE A FAVORABLE HANDLING ON THE CURRENT
TRACK OF SOUTHERN COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL KY SUGGESTING 1.5-2.5"
TOTALS.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39348399 39198203 38548175 37878217 37538438
            36788696 36548842 37038883 37538798 38088708
            38818506


Last Updated: 1222 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017