Graphic for MPD #0071

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0071
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
425 PM EST SAT MAR 4 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 042123Z - 050323Z

SUMMARY...DEEP MOISTURE REACHING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST LATE
SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN RATES.  DEVELOPING
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRACKING
EASTWARD IS INTERACTING WITH A COASTAL FRONT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST.
 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY, AND IS SERVING TO
SUSTAIN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  PW
VALUES OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO NEAR 1.7
INCHES PER THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS.  OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
RAINFALL ESTIMATES HAVE INDICATED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
THUS FAR TODAY OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LACKING, THE LATEST RAP MODEL
RUN INDICATES 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE IS LIKELY AFTER 00Z SOUTH OF
CORPUS CHRISTI.  THIS WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD COURTESY OF 35
KNOT 850MB FLOW.  MORE RIGOROUS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z, CAPABLE OF HIGHER RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR AT TIMES. 

THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE DEPICTION OF A DEVELOPING SWATH OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
THROUGH 3Z SATURDAY EVENING.  IT ALSO SUGGESTS RAIN RATES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO NEAR THE
GREATER SAN ANTONIO AREA, AND EASTWARD TO THE GULF COAST.  TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS
NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE AND THE EVENT EVOLVES. 

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   29759760 29669695 29319645 28429650 27359739
            26609743 25909743 25839805 26119873 26529927
            27329955 28229955 28949921 29459877 29719823
           


Last Updated: 425 PM EST SAT MAR 04 2017