Graphic for MPD #0094

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0094
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
934 PM EDT SUN APR 02 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL MS INTO FAR ERN LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 030130Z - 030400Z

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
INTO WRN/CNTRL MS AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF FAR ERN LA OVER THE NEXT
3 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT 01Z SHOWED A SLOW
MOVING...SW TO NE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR FROM
THE SRN TX/LA BORDER INTO ERN LA AND FAR WRN MS. 00Z RAOB DATA
FROM LCH AND LIX INDICATED STEEP 700-500 LAPSE RATES OF 7.7 AND
7.9 C/KM ALONG WITH CAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS IN
LA IS CO-LOCATED WITH AN AREA OF STRONG 850 MB CONVERGENCE AND
40-50 KT OF FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A CLOSED LOW
OVER W-CNTRL TX CONTINUES MOVING EAST. THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
CLOSED LOW IS REFLECTED IN VEERING OF THE 850 MB VAD WINDS FROM
IAH/HOU OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.

THE SWRN PORTION OF THE ONGOING AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SRN
TX/LA BORDER WILL BEGIN SLIDING EAST WHICH WILL PIVOT THE AXIS
INTO A MORE SSW-NNE ORIENTATION. THE ENTIRE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
WILL MOVE EAST WITH CONTINUED INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH FEEDING
CONTINUED RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR ALONG WITH TRAINING FOR
CNTRL/WRN MS DOWN INTO ERN LA...NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. WHILE
THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS CNTRL MS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN LA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT
MOVES INTO SWRN MS POSING A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING NEAR THE SRN
MS/LA BORDER.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33518942 33308875 31778931 30359082 30619150
            32459046 33299023


Last Updated: 934 PM EDT SUN APR 02 2017