Graphic for MPD #0097

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0097
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
905 AM EDT MON APR 03 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN MS....SOUTHERN AL...FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 031305Z - 031705Z

SUMMARY...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A QLCS MOVING
GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WITH INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST LA
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MS AND MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
AL. THE LATEST GOES IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS
PERSISTING WITH SOME HINTS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OF SOME
SUBTLE WARMING. NEVERTHELESS...THE CONVECTION IS ADVANCING EAST
AND GENERALLY SUSTAINING ITSELF WITH THE LARGER SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN LA AROUND THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS STRONGER DEEP
LAYER ASCENT IS COUPLING WITH A STRONG AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 60 KTS IN THE 850/925MB LAYER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH PWATS OF 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF UP
TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORTS A CONTINUED EASTWARD
ADVANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MUCH OF THE
EMPHASIS SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND ESPECIALLY THE FL
PANHANDLE WHERE SOME TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF SOME SMALLER SCALE BOWS IN THE QLCS.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE CONTINUED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH/HR
RANGE...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE...WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND
SOME FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY NEAR URBANIZED AREAS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INTENSE SHORT-TERM RAINFALL RATES.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   31188619 30988517 30638485 30148514 30088591
            30198683 30188777 30088845 30068887 30098940
            30448952 30858900 31178771


Last Updated: 905 AM EDT MON APR 03 2017