Graphic for MPD #0098

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0098
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...much of southern Missouri, much of northern
Arkansas, eastern/southeastern Oklahoma, and a small part of north
Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 141936Z - 150136Z

Summary...Ongoing, mature MCS across eastern Oklahoma is prompting
localized flash flood concerns while moving toward hillier
terrain/lower FFGs in Arkansas/southern Missouri.  Additionally,
redevelopment along the southwestern flank of this MCS remains
likely later this afternoon as a front surges southward over
central Oklahoma.  The flash flood risk will increase over time.

Discussion...A mature MCS continues along an axis from near
Joplin, MO to near Ada, OK.  The complex has picked up forward
speed over the past hour as expected, although embedded
LEWPs/rotation has enabled occasional spots of 2-2.5 inch/hr rain
rates to develop at times that have exceeded local FFGs.  The
airmass downstream of this MCS remains moist and strongly
unstable, although low-level wind fields are weakening slightly
and should continue to do so through the evening.  This general
regime (with occasional 2+ inch/hr rain rates in spots) should
continue to translate east-northeastward in tandem with the MCS,
resulting in occasional/spotty flash flood potential across
northern Arkansas and southern Missouri through 01Z.

Perhaps a greater flash flood threat may materialize across
southeastern Oklahoma and adjacent areas of western Arkansas with
time.  A remnant outflow over the area (partially reinforced by
lingering convection/updrafts across south-central through
east-central Oklahoma) is likely to interact favorably with a
dryline (just west of I-35) and a surging cold front moving
through central Oklahoma) to reignite convection through the
evening.  The 15Z HRRR seems to have a handle on this scenario,
and suggests that a greater coverage of 2+ inch/hr rain rates
should materialize as storms orient more favorably for training
through the afternoon and early evening.  Pending convective
trends, a small, targeted Moderate Risk area may need to be added
to the ERO should increased flash flood potential materialize.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...EAX...FWD...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...
SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38709255 38389061 37249013 35979069 35019242
            33709429 33039660 33139814 33449846 34539789
            35489699 37279480 38129398
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Last Updated: 338 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024