Graphic for MPD #0098

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0098
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
630 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TO ERN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 032229Z - 040300Z

SUMMARY...AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL RATES WITHIN AN ONGOING AXIS OF
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CNTRL/ERN FL PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN GOES 16 1-MINUTE UPDATES OF
VISIBLE/INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRN EDGE OF AN INTENSE BAND OF RAINFALL WAS LOCATED 30-40
MILES SOUTH OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND EDGING CLOSER TO THE COAST
TOWARD SRN BAY COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN ONGOING JUST NORTH OF
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN FL PANHANDLE...LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF APALACHICOLA BAY AT 22Z...BUT WITH ACCESS THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY WELL OFFSHORE.

HOWEVER...WITH RECENT TRENDS SHOWING THE ORIENTATION OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED WITH MEAN STORM MOTIONS
TOWARD THE ENE AND CONTINUED SWLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 850 MB IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HEAVY CORES OF RAINFALL ARE
FORECAST TO TRAIN FROM WSW TO ENE OVER THE NEXT 3-4
HOURS...IMPACTING LOCATIONS FROM BAY/GULF COUNTIES INTO
MADISON/TAYLOR COUNTIES. GIVEN THE SWRN FLANK OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS IS NEAR THE COAST...THE COMPLEX IS GAINING BETTER
ACCESS TO INSTABILITY PREVIOUSLY DISPLACED OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH.
AVERAGE RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WITH 5 HR TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A STRIPE OF THE CNTRL AND ERN FL
PANHANDLE...INCLUDING THE TALLAHASSEE METRO. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
BEYOND 03Z AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   30628345 30218316 29768379 29628552 30138590
            30438492


Last Updated: 630 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017