Graphic for MPD #0104

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0104
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
935 PM EDT WED APR 05 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN AL...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GA...WESTERN SC

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 060130Z - 060530Z

SUMMARY...REDEVELOPING BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN THE
WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 IR DATA SHOWS ADDITIONAL COOLING OF
CONVECTIVE TOPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. A WELL-DEFINED
INSTABILITY AXIS IS POOLED FROM THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE NORTH UP
ACROSS EASTERN AL AND INTO NORTHWEST GA...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AS
HIGH AS 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WHICH COUPLED WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT
ARRIVING FROM THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS HELPING
TO FACILITATE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE
MOVING EAST INTO A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN GA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS WILL TEND TO ALLOW THE
CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO...BUT THE CONCERN WILL BE AT
LEAST SHORT-TERM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL BE FALLING OVER AREAS
THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY AGGRAVATE RUNOFF CONCERNS AND
PROMOTE AT LEAST SOME SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN THE
WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...FFC...GSP...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35108257 34368206 33348281 32628392 32388520
            32858585 34108501 34818390


Last Updated: 935 PM EDT WED APR 05 2017