Graphic for MPD #0112
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0112...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
521 PM EDT WED APR 12 2017

CORRECTED FOR LOCATION TO SOUTHEAST NM

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NM...WESTERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 122115Z - 130215Z

SUMMARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH HIGHLY ISOLATED FLOODING
CONCERNS WHERE TERRAIN LOCKED OR CROSSING URBAN CENTERS IN THE
SHORT-TERM.  UPSCALE GROWTH IS EXPECTED TOWARD 00Z AS LLJ
STRENGTHENS FROM SE INCREASING FF THREAT.

DISCUSSION...CURRENT GOES-E/16 IR/VIS AND RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS
INDICATE A STEADY INCREASE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME WITH MANY OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND OTHER SEVERE
SIGNATURES.  CELLS ARE BEING FED BY STRONG INSTABILITY GIVEN
UNSEASONABLY HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH TDS ACROSS SE
NM IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND INCREASING TO NEAR 60F OVER THE
WESTERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND REGION...THIS CONCURRENT WITH
MODEST LAPSE RATES FROM ELEVATED MIX LAYER SUPPORT CAPES OVER 2000
J/KG.  HOWEVER CURRENTLY ORGANIZATION IS LACKING GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WITH LITTLE INFLUX OF FURTHER
INSTABILITY OR MOISTURE AND AS SUCH CONVECTION IS QUICKLY CHEWING
THROUGH THE INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY OVER SE TO EAST CENTRAL NM. 
STILL WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...QUICK DOWNPOURS
ARE EXPECTED WITH HAIL LEADING LOCALIZED LOW END FLOODING CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS.

LONGER TERM...GOES-WV SHOWS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND NNE TO SSW TROF 
REMAINS UPSTREAM EXTENDING FROM W LINCOLN/OTERO TO THE EL
PASO/HUDSPETH LINE...SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD PROVIDING THE BROAD
SCALE ASCENT THROUGH DPVA.  ADDITIONALLY SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS
DENOTED BY N-S TRANSVERSE BANDING IN CIRRUS FIELD ACROSS THE BIG
BEND...CURVES NICELY ANTICYCLONICALLY ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS SE NM/NORTHERN W TX PANHANDLE INTO THE LOWER CAP
ROCK...THIS WITH STRENGTHENING (SUPPORTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW)
OF RIGHT ENTRANCE TO NORTHERLY JET STREAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL NM/N
TX PANHANDLE BORDER STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR
BETTER MCS ORGANIZATION/UPSCALE GROWTH TOWARD 00Z ACROSS SE NM AND
TRANS-PACOS REGION.  HOWEVER MAIN DRIVER FOR MCS ORGANIZATION AND
INCREASE IN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY STRENGTHENING AND
TIGHTENING LLJ TOWARD 00Z AS SUGGESTED BY MUCH OF THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE AND RECENT RAP FORECASTS.  SELY 850MB FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM 20KTS TO 40-45KTS BY 01-02Z WITH STRONG MST FLUX
FOCUSING ONGOING CLUSTERS WITH MERGERS INTO A LARGER COMPLEX AND
INCREASED RAINFALL EFFICIENCY. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE MODEST
FORWARD PROPAGATION THROUGH THE LOCALLY HIGHEST FFG/SUPPORTIVE
GROUND CONDITIONS.  STILL THE INCREASED EFFICIENCY WITH RATES UP
TO 2"/HR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS
PARTICULARLY AFTER 00Z. 

HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO CAPTURE THE WORKED OVER
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SE/E CENTRAL NM FROM EARLY ROUND OF CONVECTION
THOUGH RECENT HRRR AND 12Z ARW ARE MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT
THOUGHT/EVOLUTION SUPPORTING A FURTHER SOUTH MCS DEVELOPMENT.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33640472 33540318 33260248 32640203 31990205
            31440229 30760258 30360301 30360345 30550444
            31140542 32330542 33240599 33630565


Last Updated: 521 PM EDT WED APR 12 2017