Graphic for MPD #0113
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0113
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
741 PM EDT WED APR 12 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND WESTERN KS....EAST CENTRAL CO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 122340Z - 130300Z

SUMMARY...LINE OF CONVECTION MAY POSE SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS DUE TO STATIONARY NATURE OF CELLS

DISCUSSION...WV DENOTES A DEFORMATION/CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE
TRAILING TROF OF AN EXITING SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MN EXTENDING BACK
TO THE NORTHERN SIDE OF DEEPER SHORTWAVE ACROSS NM.  MODEST
20-30KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTERSECTING A SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAS SPARKED CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN COOLING TO BELOW -70C. 
WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE THERE IS LIMITED CELL MOTIONS WITH
SOME RAP 0-6KM VECTORS BELOW 10KTS AND BUNKERS RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL VECTORS AT ZERO.  THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH TPWS
IN THE 1.0" RANGE...THE LACK OF MOTION HAS MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVEL
PROFILE SUPPORTING INCREASED RAIN RATES TO 1.25-1.5"/HR POSSIBLE. 
 RAP FORECAST DENOTE AN EXPECTATION OF 7H VEERING TOWARD 01-02Z
ALLOWING FOR INCREASED FORWARD PROPAGATION GIVEN MAINTAINED
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  STILL 1-3 HOUR TOTALS WOULD BE AT OR POSSIBLY
EXCEED THE 3HR FFG VALUES IN THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME POSSIBLE
ISOLATED FF TO OCCUR. 

HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN AS ENERGETIC IN DEVELOPING THE
CONVECTIVE LINE ALREADY SEEN IN RADAR/SATELLITE...THOUGH HRRR AND
RAP DO SUGGEST THIS LIMITED TIME PERIOD OF STATIONARY CELLS THOUGH
WITH LESS COVERAGE WHILE SUGGESTING RAIN TOTALS OF 2-3" POSSIBLE
PROVIDING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS ISOLATED FF
OCCURRING.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...ICT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39119946 39089909 38789889 38190006 37770243
            38070258 38590065 39049974


Last Updated: 741 PM EDT WED APR 12 2017