Graphic for MPD #0118

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0118...CORRECTION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
913 PM EDT SAT APR 15 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 160105Z - 160705Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOWING BACKBUILDING CHARACTERISTICS ARE
FORMING NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.75",
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-5", COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A STATIONARY FRONT ANGLED ACROSS KS ALONG WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 25-40 KTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY
INFLOW AT 850 HPA (GREATER THAN THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND) HAVE
MANAGED TO BREAK THE CAP ACROSS THE REGION AND ARE SHOWING
BACKBUILDING CHARACTER.  THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR WELL ORGANIZED
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.25" PER AREA SOUNDINGS.

RAP FORECASTS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD INCREASE FURTHER
AND VEER SOMEWHAT MORE, WHICH WOULD MAKE THE FLOW REGIME MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND TEND TO MAINTAIN SOME BACKBUILDING CHARACTER TO
THE CONVECTION.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BREACH 1.5".  EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN
RATES, EVEN AFTER THE STORMS START TO FORWARD PROPAGATE.  WHEN
COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE CELL MERGERS FROM INCOMING STORMS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH, HOURLY RAIN RATES COULD PEAK NEAR 1.75".  WITH
BACKBUILDING AND CELL MERGERS EXPECTED, LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-5" ARE
POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD EXCEED 2-3" IN 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES.  AROUND 04Z, COLD POOL GENERATION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST MOTION AT 20-25 KTS. 

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39709620 39279505 38219518 37529607 37259719
            37359875 37769960 38179990 38189988 38559916
            39309743


Last Updated: 913 PM EDT SAT APR 15 2017