Graphic for MPD #0135

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 135
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AL...SOUTH CENTRAL TN...NORTHWEST MS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 222011Z - 230011Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN TENNESSEE MAY RESULT IN AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL.  THIS COULD CAUSE SOME
ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES OWING TO LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ONGOING NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR.
 THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
PICKED UP SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY.  LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY IS INDICATING A BAND OF TRAINING CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE, AND THESE STORMS
ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR.

THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING
1.25 TO 1.5 INCH PWS NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION.  SPC MESOANALYSIS
IS SHOWING 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AS OF 20Z.  THE ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT EAST OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.  THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, AND
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SATURATED GROUND COULD CAUSE SOME
ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES THIS EVENING.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...MEG...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36208370 35708353 35068448 34518549 34128661
            33938760 33898878 34558872 35228852 35658814
            35888702 36068588 36118492


Last Updated: 413 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2017