Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0145
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
815 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Areas affected...Central to Northeast MS...Far Western to
Northwest AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101215Z - 101815Z

SUMMARY...Broken areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue
to advance off to the east this morning, and a combination of
heavy rainfall rates and locally sensitive soil conditions may
foster some instances of flash flooding through midday.

DISCUSSION...A broken band of heavy showers and thunderstorms
continues to advance off to the east early this morning across
areas of central and northern MS. The activity is somewhat
progressive in nature, including a couple of small-scale bowing
segments, but the activity continues to foster heavy rainfall
rates with some localized areas of repeating cell-activity.

The downstream airmass across eastern MS and western AL is only
weakly unstable with MUCAPE values of as much as 500 J/kg, but a
relatively strong southerly low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts is
forecast to remain in place which will continue to encourage
rather focused moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico.

This coupled with a gradual increase in boundary layer instability
and the arrival of warm front downstream from strengthening low
pressure near the northwest Gulf Coast should favor at least a
broken axis of convection across areas of central to northeast MS
which will gradually advance into west-central to northwest AL by
early afternoon.

The southern part of the MPD area which has already locally seen
some flash flooding this morning may come under the influence of
stronger and more organized convection impacting areas farther
south down into LA, and this area will need to be monitored for a
more focused and renewed threat of flash flooding.

Generally the rainfall rates with the ongoing broken activity will
tend to be somewhat mitigated by the relative lack of instability,
but some of the stronger convective elements may still produce
some 1 to 1.5"/hour rates, with pockets of additional totals
through early afternoon of 2 to 3 inches. Given the wet antecedent
conditions, these additional rains may foster some instances of
flash flooding.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34558809 34338757 33598768 32688840 32048939
            31729048 32279108 33149017 34168914