Graphic for MPD #0146

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0146
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1039 PM EDT TUE APR 25 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS & SOUTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 260238Z - 260758Z

SUMMARY...A COUPLE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH 08Z.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5", WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF
2-4", COULD LEAD TO ISSUES IN AN AREA COMPROMISED BY RECENT RAINS.

DISCUSSION...A MESOSCALE ANALYSIS REVEALS ONE MAIN FRONTAL WAVE IN
SOUTHEAST KS, ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH
EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM OK.  IN ADDITION TO THE MAIN SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, A MODEST DEW POINT
DISCREPANCY SHOWS UP IN THE OBSERVATIONS CUTTING
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS AR.  RECENT SPC MESOANALYSES AND
INCREASED CLUTTER IN REGIONAL RADARS REVEAL THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIN
ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO ELEVATED
CONVECTION.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25" INHABIT THE AREA
PER 00Z RADIOSONDE AND GPS DATA.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 25-45 KTS
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST PER VAD WIND PROFILES IN THE REGION,
AROUND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE 850-400 HPA MEAN WIND.  MUCAPES OF
1000-2500 J/KG LIE TO THE SOUTH WITHIN THE INFLOW SOURCE REGION.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS IN THE RAP INDICATE
TWO BOUNDARIES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 08Z, WHICH IS
BECOMING APPARENT ON RADAR IMAGERY -- THE MAIN LINE IN SOUTHEAST
KS NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT/COLD POOL AND A SECONDARY BATCH OF
CONVECTION ~45 MILES BEHIND IT NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER ALONG THE 850
HPA SLICE OF THE BOUNDARY.  HEAVY RAIN CORES SHOULD INITIALLY MOVE
EAST- NORTHEAST AT 30-35 KTS, BEFORE TURNING MORE EASTERLY ONCE
THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION ERODES, LEAVING THE REMAINING
INSTABILITY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTION.  SOME VEERING
IN THE 850 HPA WINDS SHOULD MAKE WINDS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH
HEIGHT.  BELIEVE THE 12Z ARW, 12Z NMMB, 00Z NAM CONEST, AND 18Z
CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL HAVE CAPTURED THE REGION OF HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THE BEST.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5", WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF 2-4", ARE EXPECTED WHERE REPEAT ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR
TRAINING ARE EXPERIENCED.  OVER SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINS,
URBAN CENTERS, AND WITHIN THE OZARKS, FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE MOST
POSSIBLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38329419 37929275 36539281 36969687 38119589
           


Last Updated: 1039 PM EDT TUE APR 25 2017