Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0147
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
132 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Areas affected...Southeast OK...Northeast TX...West-Central to
Southwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101732Z - 102332Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms are expected going
through the afternoon hours with locally heavy rainfall rates.
This coupled with wet antecedent conditions from recent heavy
rainfall should foster scattered instances of flash flooding over
the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...A deep upper-level trough and an associated closed
low continues to gradually eject east across the southern Plains
en route to the Lower MS Valley. Stronger forcing aloft coupled
with steepening mid-level lapse rates and a moist boundary layer
pooled near a frontal zone will be key to facilitating an
additional expansion of showers and thunderstorms going through
the afternoon hours.

MUCAPE values are on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg locally, with
aid from 700/500 mb lapse rates of 7.0 to 7.5+ degrees C/KM. Some
additional mid-level cooling is expected especially over southeast
OK, west-central to southwest AR, and northeast TX over the next
few hours and this coupled with at least modest boundary layer
heating and some frontal convergence should gradually allow the
convection currently over southern OK and northern TX to focus
farther off to the east.

The 12Z HREF guidance shows strong agreement in depicting
slow-moving convective cells given rather weak steering currents,
but also supports some localized concerns for smaller-scale
training convective bands. Already dual-pol radar trends show
areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms producing localized 1 to
1.5"/hour rainfall rates, and especially over the eastern suburbs
of the Dallas-Forth Worth metropolitan area where some relatively
organized bands of convection have set up.

Rainfall totals going through late this afternoon may reach 2 to 4
inches with isolated heavier amounts with these slower moving
areas of showers and thunderstorms. This coupled with the wet
antecedent conditions from recent heavy rainfall will likely
result in at least scattered instances of flash flooding.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35689386 35359291 34489246 33479263 32409354
            31739522 31709681 32409761 33849763 34959668
            35639510