Graphic for MPD #0152

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0152
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1156 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN OH...FAR NORTHEAST KY...CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WV

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 290352Z - 290945Z

SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME CELL-TRAINING WILL FOCUS
SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...AN AXIS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN OH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WV AND POSSIBLY IMPACTING PARTS OF
FAR NORTHEAST KY. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING FOCUSED BY THE APPROACH OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY WHICH IS ALSO DRIVING A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION OF 40 TO 60
KTS. AREA VWP DATA SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NOSING UP ACROSS
NORTHEAST KY AND WESTERN WV OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A
FOCUSED AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE. THIS IS ENHANCING ASCENT ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT AND IS ALSO FOSTERING STRONG
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION.

RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES/HR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
CONVECTION AS IT GRADUALLY ADVANCES EAST...BUT THERE WILL BE A
NOTABLE CONCERN FOR SOME CELL TRAINING GIVEN THE WSW/ENE
ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN FLOW COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT.

THE HIRES GUIDANCE MAY BE LOCALLY UNDER DOING THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AND PROPAGATION ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST KY AND ESPECIALLY
INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN WV AS THE LEVEL OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
AND COLD POOL GENERATION OVER SOUTHERN OH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
NOTABLE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE MCS ACTIVITY.

EXPECT AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS TO BE POSSIBLE. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME RUNOFF CONCERNS OR
FLASH FLOODING WHERE TRAINING CELLS SET UP. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39718077 39597961 39027947 38577990 38338048
            38218134 38148224 38128383 38418456 38758466
            39228397 39568232


Last Updated: 1156 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017