Graphic for MPD #0159

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0159
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1000 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 291359Z - 291759Z

SUMMARY...CONTINUING DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS SWRN TO S-CNTRL OK.

DISCUSSION...EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP FROM EXTREME NORTHWEST TX INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OK TO NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 40-65 KT SHOWN IN 12Z SOUNDINGS OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX CONTINUE
TO CARRY VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST TX INTO NW AR.
MUCAPE VALUES ARE ROUGHLY 2500-4000 J/KG IN THIS REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.3-1.6 INCHES. RADAR SHOWS HOURLY RAIN RATES
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES ALONG THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE
WESTERN RED RIVER REGION.

THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION A
VIGOROUS UPPER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING SLOWLY FROM THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CAUSE THE AXIS
OF PRECIPITATION TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED IN
TIME...WHICH COULD ENHANCE TRAINING. LOCAL HOURLY RAIN RATES OF
GENERALLY 1.0 TO 2.0" SHOULD CONTINUE.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING IN THIS AREA...WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE RECENTLY OCCURRED
AND FLASH FLOODING WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT.

MCDONNAL/OTTO        

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   36359841 36129651 35259595 34609710 33939846
            34879979


Last Updated: 1000 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017