Graphic for MPD #0167

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0167
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1050 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST OK...SOUTHEAST KS...CENTRAL
MO...CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 300249Z - 300849Z

SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ARRIVES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST ORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME
ARE GENERALLY ACROSS PART OF EASTERN OK..CENTRAL/NORTHERN AR AND
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SUCH STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LARGE SCALE FORCING GIVEN THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE...THAT
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG WITH SOME
EMBEDDED STRONGER ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ELEMENTS CONTINUE
FROM SOUTHEAST KS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND INTO CENTRAL IL. MANY
OF THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST
12 TO 24 HOURS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
RUNOFF AND CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS...SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK WHICH IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ADVANCE EAST ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MO OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. RAINFALL RATES OF AS MUCH AS 1.5 INCHES/HR
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BROADER STRATIFORM SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION
IS PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF AS MUCH AS 0.2 TO 0.4
INCHES/HR...WHICH IS EXCEEDING FFG VALUES LOCALLY...AND ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL MO.

EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF THROUGH 09Z WHICH IS
GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR. FORTUNATELY...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARD DAWN.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...ILX...IND...LOT...LSX...PAH...SGF...
TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40498849 40448781 39988751 39738764 39418813
            38698912 38148955 37729030 37479123 37319283
            37059409 36709485 36549525 36659560 37199579
            37729572 38319514 38619423 38929229 39549070
            40218947


Last Updated: 1050 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017