Graphic for MPD #0179

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0179
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1240 AM EDT WED MAY 03 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK...SOUTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 030440Z - 031030Z

SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
WITH TIME WITH A RESULTING AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN SETTING UP OVER
NEARLY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS. RENEWED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN.

DISCUSSION...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE STRENGTHENING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WEST TX OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BECOMES
BETTER-DEFINED OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS OK. STRENGTHENING
FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A GRADUALLY MOISTENING
COLUMN WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT IN
AN ELEVATED FASHION ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHERN KS
INITIALLY..AND GRADUALLY ADVANCING INTO SOUTHWEST MO TOWARD DAWN.
ALREADY THE LATEST GOES-16 EXPERIMENTAL 10.3 MICRON/IR IMAGERY
SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING CONVECTIVE TOPS OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
AND FARTHER EAST ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER WITH POCKETS OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION EXPANDING IN COVERAGE.

THE 00Z ARW/NMMB GUIDANCE ALONG WITH CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR
ALL SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BECOMING A CONCERN AS DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING UP ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TX GETS TRANSPORTED FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS.
EXPECT AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS TO NEAR 3 INCHES TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAWN. GIVEN THE
MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT AND SUBSEQUENT FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO...THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS
WILL LIKELY AGGRAVATE CONCERNS FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS WITH RENEWED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38379407 37869290 37039299 36629397 36329589
            36299764 36789856 37419838 37939742 38309582
           


Last Updated: 1240 AM EDT WED MAY 03 2017