Graphic for MPD #0199

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0199
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
217 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM...WESTERN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 100615Z - 101015Z

SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS EXIST.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREAS OF EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE
INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED
BY THE NORTHEAST PIVOT OF A 90-110 KT 250 MB JET STREAK PIVOTING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM WITH FAVORABLE LEFT-EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS
PLACED OVER EASTERN NM AND WESTERN TX. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A
30 TO 40 KT S/SE LOW LEVEL JET NOSING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WHICH IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT 1 TO 1.25 INCH PWATS INTO THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A NOTABLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS POOLED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM AND SOUTHWEST TX WHERE
RISING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS...NOW INTO THE LOW 60S IS
FACILITATING MLCAPE VALUES LOCALLY OVER 2000 J/KG.

THE FOCUSED TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO SOUTHEAST
NM MAY TEND TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS OVER ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN NM AND INTO WESTERN TX GIVEN
SOME OF THE LARGER SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION. RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AS MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN LOCALLY...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. GIVEN SOME
OF THE EARLIER HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS...THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS MAY
RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL RUNOFF AND/OR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35660239 35610145 34920088 33860113 32510193
            31350279 31260338 31680377 32350409 33220430
            33930426 34530409 35100360 35510291


Last Updated: 217 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2017