Graphic for MPD #0202

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0202
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
524 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHERN OK...WEST-CENTRAL MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 102120Z - 110200Z

SUMMARY...MUTIPLE CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ADVANCE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES/HR AND A FEW
CELL-MERGERS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 10.3 MICRON/IR IMAGERY SHOWS
COOLING CONVECTIVE TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHERN KS AS AT LEAST MODEST
UPPER JET SUPPORT INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
ALSO REPRESENTS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED INSTABILITY GRADIENT.

THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AS THEY ADVANCE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGER SCALE WARM ADVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH ANY RENEWED COLD POOL ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO
MAINTAIN THE CONVECTIVE THREAT AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MO LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

A NOSE OF 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH PWATS POOLED UP ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH SOME OCCASIONAL OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND/OR
CELL-MERGERS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD
APPROACH OR EXCEED 2 INCHES/HR. SOME BRIEF REPEATING OF CELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TOO...WHICH COULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE RAINFALL TOTALS.
THE MOST RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES
THROUGH MID-EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHEAST
KS. THE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE THREAT AREA REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST GIVEN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS...AND SO THESE HEAVIER SHORT-TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING OR ENHANCED RUNOFF CONCERNS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38869371 38149301 37059474 36439602 36209705
            36529784 37289781 38059651 38529539


Last Updated: 524 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2017